November 26, 2019
Decentral Park Capital is a family of digital assets funds, run by a tech founder-led senior investment team bringing multi-faceted expertise, network, and capital to blockchain technology projects.
Telegram Open Network: a Sleeping Giant Awakens
Key Takeaways
- If delivered as intended, with 250M (and growing) active users on its front-end, TON can be the gateway for cryptoassets and the related applications to “bank the unbanked”, and become the first ubiquitous discovery platform for Web 3.0 applications, akin to the App Store for Web 2.0.
- However, at this stage, interoperability appears a long way out, as (i) it is common for blockchain networks to spend at least one or two years post Mainnet launch to achieve a stable state and (ii) other networks need to achieve maturity, in order for interoperability to make sense.
- Over a 5-year horizon, once key pieces of the platform are in place and the token economy stabilizes, we expect the network’s value to surpass $20B, making Grams a top-10 protocol asset.
- TON introduces a collection of highly promising technologies, but the unknowns in the feasibility of some of the parts, as well as the sum of the parts, are still many.
- In the initial stages of the launch, TON appears to be less open to developers than its competitors. In a world where talent is scarce, we view that as a competitive disadvantage.
- The instability in the current macro- and meso- environments, makes the launch phase of the Gram token economy, all the more challenging.
- The unfriendly attitude of local governments in the countries where Telegram’s users are predominantly based, may dampen the adoption of Grams by users, by slowing the value flow from fiat to Grams.
- With weak demand among crypto-native investors, few avenues for current Telegram users to acquire Grams, delays in delivery, the Foundations intent to not proceed with buybacks, and ~60% of the total supply of Grams coming to market in Year 1, we expect selling pressure to outweigh demand for the asset in the short-to-medium term.
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