Index Creator - Investing in the top global brands has never been easier.
What's next for the stock market? HINT: More Gains Look Likely $SPY $MDY
Great article posted on Business Insider tells a great story. The chart I post below it also highlights why 2300 looks like the next logical stop for the S&P 500 $SPY strictly from a technical perspective. We have broken over the neckline of the IHS pattern, technicals are solid, albeit a bit overbought across all sectors. We can pullback or chop sideways to burn off that overbought reading. WHY? It's not really important unless you go to a lot of cocktail parties but if you really want a narrative, perhaps this is the best one to use:
There's currently $12 Trillion of negative yielding government debt around the world. That forces the money to seek a better home. It moves around the globe searching for a better return or "carry". Much of it is surely finding a home in U.S. Treasuries given its the largest, most liquid market in the world. But some of that money is buying stocks, aka "dividends" around the globe. Given the bond market is multiples larger in size than the stock market, that's a very big wave of money coming to much smaller shores around the globe. The U.S. should continue to be a beneficiary.
Here's the charts...When stocks hit a new high within a multi-year high, forward returns tend to be pretty solid.
According to Tom Leveroni at Nautilus Research, hitting an all-time multiyear high in particular means more good news is on the horizon. The market has broken its multiyear record 17 times, and each of those instances has been followed by prolonged growth.
"As shown below, the only thing more bullish than a new 1 year high is a new multi-year high (i.e. > 2 year high) — 16 of 17 occurrences since 1928 gained 3 months later (avg + 4.44%) and all 17 occurrences were higher one year later," Leveroni wrote in a note to clients on Monday.
In fact, after these 17 multiyear highs, the average return for the S&P 500 has been 8.54% over the next six months and a whopping 15.56% over the next year.
Just because we've hit a new high doesn't mean it's the top yet, in Leveroni's opinion. He was also impressed by the resiliency of the market in such an uncertain global atmosphere , which makes the latest record, as he called it, "The Mother of All Buy Signals."
"This new high breakout in US big cap stocks has defiantly bucked a dour global mood and, based on historical precedent, should be respected," he wrote. "We know of no other technical signal as robustly bullish for a longer-term horizon."
While past performance is not always indicative of future returns, 17 out of 17 isn't bad.
2300 Projected next target for SPY: