Energy Capital Research Group
March 10, 2017
The Only Independent Source of Daily Predictive Energy Analysis

The Rise of Arab Spring II

Our meeting last weekend at Windsor Castle outside London reinforced a view becoming widely shared. Arab Spring is returning and this time it will be much worse.

In the fifteen years of this annual consultation the opinions shared have always provided an early indicator of what is coming. Little wonder, given the high-profile energy analysts and policy makers attending. 

As I noted in the last ECRG Intel, proceedings at Windsor are governed by the Chatham House Rule. This allows for all to use what transpires provided that no name is attached to any opinion or any mention is made of who attended. In practice, the Rule allows for frank and wide-ranging discussions, punctuated by occasionally pointed disagreements. Having done this for fifteen years also facilitates the exchange among figures who now each other well. 

This year the fascination was initially addressed to the rise of populism following Brexit and Trump, further advanced by the current political developments in France, the Netherlands, and even Germany. 

But the mood turned decidedly somber when the conversation turned to contributions by ambassadors from most of the MENA (Middle East North Africa) countries. Their concerted position was direct - it is not a question of whether the Arab Spring will rise again, but when.

And from the indications already present, this time the insurrections will include two elements missing from the first round: a Sunni/Shiite division as a main central ingredient; and a lack of huge oil revenue surpluses to buy off populations with domestic social programs.

This time, it will get nasty...

http://energycapitalresearchgroup.com/ecrg-intelligence/the-rise-of-arab-spring-ii/ 

 

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