Thornburg Investment Management
August 08, 2019
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The Dark Side of the Rate Cut

Market expectations should not help drive monetary policy.

The U.S. stock market has been rallying in anticipation of two rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the first of which we saw on July 31st. Yet, we wonder whether these rate cuts are for the right reason. The wrong reason could send the U.S. economy down the wrong path.

It May Have Been the Right Move, but for the Wrong Reason

The Fed cut its key lending rate at its July meeting for at least one of three possible reasons:

The first is political. While the president has made clear his preference for a dovish monetary policy, I don’t think the rate cut was the result of any political influence.

The second reason is economic concerns. This is the Fed’s official reason. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed cited “implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures.” In fact, earlier this week, the  Wall Street Journal  reported that the previous Fed chair, Janet Yellen, said she shared these concerns and said a rate cut was justified. Of course, economic data is the right way to justify a rate cut, but I believe that the Fed is letting economic data share the spotlight with investor expectations.

That leads us to the third possible reason, financial market influence. The Fed has become very sensitive to the fact that financial market instability can impact U.S. economic health. Given heavy reliance on debt financing in the U.S., instability on Wall Street has the potential to drive Main Street into a recession. I believe the Fed is factoring the market’s rate expectations into its policy decisions to help keep the markets stable. To be sure, the Fed’s July (and possibly September) rate cut should help its dual mandate of maximizing employment and ensuring price stability. But, all of this may only help prevent a recession in the  short term . By also bowing to the market’s rate expectations, the Fed could end up driving asset price exuberance and significant market instability in the longer term that could, in turn, help trigger a recession.

Seeking to Engineer Market Stability Could Backfire

It should be no surprise that the Fed doesn’t want to be at the helm of another asset price crumble that helps lead to an economic recession. Based on comments in 2018 from Federal Reserve officials, the central bank believes market instability helped drive the two past U.S. recessions.

The markets have rallied in anticipation that a rate cut in July, as well as one in September, will be enough to head off a recession, making them “insurance cuts.” If the rally continues at this rate, I worry the Fed will be forced to deflate the market (given their sensitivity to inflated asset prices) through a form of monetary tightening or the market’s exuberance could eventually bust on its own. These scenarios could help drive a recession that the Fed seeks to avoid.

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The views expressed by the portfolio managers reflect their professional opinions and are subject to change. Under no circumstances does the information contained within represent a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal. Investments carry risks, including possible loss of principal. Portfolios investing in bonds have the same interest rate, inflation, and credit risks that are associated with the underlying bonds. The value of bonds will fluctuate relative to changes in interest rates, decreasing when interest rates rise. Unlike bonds, bond funds have ongoing fees and expenses. Investments in the Funds are not FDIC insured, nor are they bank deposits or guaranteed by a bank or any other entity. Please see our glossary for a definition of terms: http://www.thornburg.com/legal/glossary.aspx Thornburg mutual funds are distributed by Thornburg Securities Corporation. Thornburg Investment Management, Inc. mutual funds are sold through investment professionals including investment advisors, brokerage firms, bank trust departments, trust companies and certain other financial intermediaries. Thornburg Securities Corporation (TSC) does not act as broker of record for investors.

Before investing, carefully consider the Fund’s investment goals, risks, charges, and expenses. For a prospectus or summary prospectus containing this and other information, contact your financial advisor or visit our literature center. Read them carefully before investing: https://www.thornburg.com/forms-literature/product-literature/mutual-funds/index.aspx



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