The aftermath of the first presidential debate

Andrew H. Friedman,  Principal,  The Washington Update

Washington  - In our recent white papers, we summarized our view of the presidential election as follows:

The metrics underlying the presidential election - the growth in the number of minority voters and the Democrats' historical advantage in the Electoral College - make Hillary Clinton the heavy favorite. But it is too early to declare the race over. Donald Trump's ability to control and bend the rules of engagement give him a "puncher's chance" of prevailing. Facing a heavily favored opponent, he still could pull off an unlikely win by landing a rhetorical punch that gets through Clinton's defenses and severely rattles her. Until we see how - and whether - Clinton handles the Trump onslaught in their debates, it is premature to declare her the clear winner.

Although Trump scored some rhetorical points in the first debate, we believe they were not enough to overcome the Democrats' demographic and Electoral College advantages heading into the election. (Our white paper, Sizing Up the 2016 General Election, discusses these metrics in comprehensive detail.)

The Republicans did not enter the debate with an equal chance of winning the election, and thus Trump had to do more than merely break even. In failing to throw Clinton meaningfully off her game, Trump squandered his first important opportunity.

This failure places greater pressure on Trump in the remaining two debates. He needs to fluster Clinton to raise doubts among independent voters about her capacity to govern. Readers should watch the upcoming debates with this dynamic in mind. If Trump fails to disturb Clinton as he did his Republican primary opponents, then his already uphill path to victory will be much steeper.

As the fallout from this and the forthcoming debates takes hold, readers also should follow the polls in four key "toss up" states: Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia.

Bottom line:  To win, Trump likely has to prevail in all four toss up states. How he is projected to fare there thus provides the best insight, we believe, into the election result.