March 14, 2015
Kenneth Luskin @ Kenneth M. Luskin, Investment Counsel
30 year career in the public securities industry.
SodaStream: Main Business Has 90% Gross Margins!
1) Most ANALysts and Investors do NOT understand the incredible value of SodaStream's worldwide
Co2 FRANCHISE.
2) The SodaStream worldwide Co2 FRANCHISE is so powerful, that mega company Samsung decided to use it, rather than try to build their own. Whirlpool's Kitchen Aid division made the same decision.
3) SodaStream's Q4 Co2 refill units grew by 17% in Q4, year over year.
4) SodaStream generates virtually NO gross profit on the sale of new systems.
5) Over time, Co2 refills will become a greater % of total revenues, which means that total gross margins and bottom line profits will continue to rise.
6) SodaStream also generates gross profits from the sale of flavors, but Co2 refill revenues are about twice as large. Flavors have good gross margins, in the 40% area, but not near the approximate 90% gross margins from Co2 refills.
7) So, about 2/3 of SodaStream's gross profits are from Co2 refills. Overtime, as the active and loyal Sodastream user base grows, they will be able to spend less on the promotion of new systems, which will increase bottom line profits.
8) There is NO other acceptable way to carbonate water! Keurig has discussed an Alka Seltzer type pod, but this would contain numerous chemicals. People drink sparkling water because its healthy! It is very doubtful that most people will choose to make sparkling water by using a heavy chemical laden process.
9) So, SodaStream will generate 90% gross profits for as far as the eye can see from their Co2 Franchise, on a loyal and growing active user base, that is in over 45 countries, all over the world.
10) SodaStream generated $253 million in gross profits in 2014. Monster Beverage (MNST) trades at an Enterprise Value (EV) that is 16 times its gross profits. Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) trades at an EV is 10 times its gross profits.
So, what is a fair multiple of gross profits for SodaStream?
11) Surely an EV that is only 1.6 times gross profits is way too low, considering the multiples that MNST and GMCR trade at.
12) SodaStream appears to be extremely misunderstood by Wall St. ANALysts and investors.
2) The SodaStream worldwide Co2 FRANCHISE is so powerful, that mega company Samsung decided to use it, rather than try to build their own. Whirlpool's Kitchen Aid division made the same decision.
3) SodaStream's Q4 Co2 refill units grew by 17% in Q4, year over year.
4) SodaStream generates virtually NO gross profit on the sale of new systems.
5) Over time, Co2 refills will become a greater % of total revenues, which means that total gross margins and bottom line profits will continue to rise.
6) SodaStream also generates gross profits from the sale of flavors, but Co2 refill revenues are about twice as large. Flavors have good gross margins, in the 40% area, but not near the approximate 90% gross margins from Co2 refills.
7) So, about 2/3 of SodaStream's gross profits are from Co2 refills. Overtime, as the active and loyal Sodastream user base grows, they will be able to spend less on the promotion of new systems, which will increase bottom line profits.
8) There is NO other acceptable way to carbonate water! Keurig has discussed an Alka Seltzer type pod, but this would contain numerous chemicals. People drink sparkling water because its healthy! It is very doubtful that most people will choose to make sparkling water by using a heavy chemical laden process.
9) So, SodaStream will generate 90% gross profits for as far as the eye can see from their Co2 Franchise, on a loyal and growing active user base, that is in over 45 countries, all over the world.
10) SodaStream generated $253 million in gross profits in 2014. Monster Beverage (MNST) trades at an Enterprise Value (EV) that is 16 times its gross profits. Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) trades at an EV is 10 times its gross profits.
So, what is a fair multiple of gross profits for SodaStream?
11) Surely an EV that is only 1.6 times gross profits is way too low, considering the multiples that MNST and GMCR trade at.
12) SodaStream appears to be extremely misunderstood by Wall St. ANALysts and investors.
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