Reviewing our prediction for the presidential election

Washington  - Last week we disseminated our prediction that Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election. The release after our prediction of a lurid tape "featuring" Donald Trump only confirms our view. We also think Clinton will carry the Democrats to a Senate majority, but her administration will face a Republican House.

We based this call on a number of factors, outlined in more detail in our white paper, Sizing Up the 2016 General Election:

• Based on states' historical voting, Clinton needs many fewer electoral votes to get to the 270 necessary to win the presidency. In our view, Trump's path to victory in the Electoral College requires him to win the four major toss-up states of Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia. We do not believe he can accomplish that.
• To offset the growth in minority voters, who overwhelmingly support Clinton, Trump needs to win almost two-thirds of the white vote. Although Trump is demonstrably leading among white males, he is unlikely to garner sufficient white female votes to get to that threshold.
• Although Clinton is one of the most disliked candidates in modern presidential politics, polls almost uniformly show that voters view Trump even more unfavorably.
• Until now, we've given Trump a small "puncher's chance" of winning based on how he handled his primary opponents in the debates. Facing a favored opponent, he could have pulled off a similar unlikely win by getting through Clinton's defenses and rattling her. But Trump has been unable to throw Clinton meaningfully off her game, and we do not see sufficient prospect of that happening in the coming weeks to allow Trump to pull off an upset.

Bottom line:  We believe Clinton will win the election. Before the new administration takes office, we will be preparing a white paper discussing the likely policies and legislation it will pursue, the likelihood of enactment, and how those policies will affect the economy, the market and investors.