June 14, 2017
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Precious Metals Monitor --- May 2017
Learn how precious metals may affect green technology in the US. Read full story here
Maxwell Gold
Director
–Investment Strategy
1
For month ending May 31
st
, 2017
. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
June
6
th
,
201
7
Precious Metals Monitor
-
--
May
2017
Key Highlights
Metals shrug off further Fed rate hikes
After peaking near 2.4% at the start of May, US 10 Year Treasury yields saw a precipitous drop ending the month at 2.2%. This has provided
a buffer for precious metals
as US real interest rates fell commensurately despite lower inflation measures and inflation expectations in
recent weeks. With the Federal Reserve (Fed)
expected to hike rates in mid
-June, investors appear to be less jolted by the prospects of this
potential rate increase compared to prior hikes in this ti
ghtening cycle. With inflation below targets, mixed economic data
, and weaker than
expected jobs data we
may
see a “steady as she goes”
approach by the Fed which the market has likely already adjusted.
Green technology and the role
for precious metals
Despite the US decision
to exit the Paris Climate Accord
, the global move toward sustainable energy and
green
technology is ramping up
with direct impact for precious metals, particularly silver a
nd platinum group metals (PGMs). The fastest growing industrial segment for
silver has been its use in photovoltaic (PV)
panels for solar energy
, which saw a 34% increase in demand last year and is
expected to reach
record levels in 2018, according to the Silver Institute. China, the leader in solar energy, continues to grow its clean energy initiatives by
expanding its solar PV capacity. According to its National En
ergy Administration, China doubled its PV capacit
y in 2016 to over 77
gigawatts. A global focus on reducing carbon emissions may continue to spur higher demand for platinum and palladium autocata
lysts
which help reduce emissions. A shift to higher adoption
of battery electric vehicles may pose a long run risk for gasoline and diesel engines,
but in the near and medium term the impact may be limited.
A likely near term path may see a transition from combustion engines to
battery electric vehicles
by further util
izing hybrid electric vehicles which still use autocatalysts and PGMs.
Where have all the Eagles gone?
While gold ETF investment demand remains strong this year, physical retail investors have shied away from the gold market yea
r to
date.
This
can be
seen by the lackluster sales in th
e US Mint bullion coin program
year to date through May
2017
. US Mint sales of American Gold
Eagle
bullion
coins
for the first 5 months have been the lowest level since 200
7 for the same 5 month period. The physical invest
ment
market is typically more price sensitive and may be lagging due to price appreciation as well as strong demand in 2016. Signs
of further
increase
from US physical retail investors would be a bullish signal for gold
providing further support for prices
.
Table 1: Performance
Returns
(as of May
31
st
, 2017
)
Precious metals
Spot Price
May
QTD
YTD
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
Gold ($/ounce)
1,268.9
0.1%
1.6%
10.1%
4.4%
0.5%
-4.8%
Silver ($/ounce)
17.3
0.8%
-5.1%
8.9%
8.4%
-2.7%
-9.5%
Platinum ($/ounce)
950.0
0.5%
-0.1%
5.2%
-3.0%
-13.2%
-8.0%
Palladium ($/ounce)
819.2
-0.9%
2.6%
20.3%
50.0%
-0.7%
6.0%
Key Market Indices
Index Level
May
QTD
YTD
1 Year
3 Year
5 Year
ETFS Precious Metals Basket Index
3,375.5
-0.5%
-0.8%
9.7%
6.2%
-1.9%
-5.7%
Bloomberg
Commodity Index
82.8
-1.3%
-2.8%
-5.1%
-2.4%
-14.6%
-8.0%
S&P 500 Index
2,411.8
1.4%
2.4%
8.7%
17.5%
10.1%
16.0%
MSCI Emerging Market (EM)
Index
1,005.3
3.0%
5.2%
17.3%
27.4%
1.6%
4.8%
Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
2,023.34
0.8%
1.5%
2.4%
1.6%
2.5%
2.2%
US Dollar (USD)
Index
96.9
-2.1%
-3.4%
-5.2%
1.1%
6.4%
3.2%
Euro/US Dollar (EUR)
1.12
3.2%
5.6%
6.9%
1.0%
-6.2%
-2.0%
US Dollar/Japanese Yen
(JPY)
110.8
-0.6%
-0.5%
-5.3%
0.0%
2.9%
7.3%
HFRX Global Hedge Fund Index
1,231.6
0.2%
0.7%
2.3%
6.0%
-0.1%
1.9%
*See disclosures for further definitions and details
. Yearly
returns are annualized. QTD = quarter to date, YTD = year to date
. ETF = exchange traded fund.
Gold:
+0.1% (May
), +1.6% (QTD), +10.1
% (YTD)
2
For month ending May 31
st
, 2017
. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment Outlook
•
Gold
was flat
on the month
ending
at
$1268.9
/ounce
(oz)
. In
our 2017 base case outlook, g
old
may
rise to $1300/oz in the
first half of the year, a
ided by a weaker US Dollar (
USD
) and low
real rate environment. However, USD strengthening in the
second half of th
e year and subdued investor interest may
drive
a sell
-off, with gold ending the year in the $1230
/oz range
.
•
In a bullish scenario, the Fed
would
be slow to hike rates
while
inflation
rises
well
above expectations
as the USD weakened
pushing g
old
closer to $
1400
/oz at year end.
•
In a bearish scenario, the Fed
may
move more aggressively,
seeing the USD appreciate and
burst
ing
the bond market bubble
and
pushing g
old
near
the
$1100
/oz
level
.
Gold price, daily moving average (dma)
, and volume
Flows
•
ETFs
:
In
May
, g
lobal
physical gold
ETFs
saw
net
inflows of 3.6
metric tonnes (
t)
for the 4
th
consecutive month; thereby raising
cumulative gold ETF
holdings
to
1,8
63
t,
a 4.6
%
increase YTD
.
•
Inventories
:
COMEX (Commodity Exchange) gold
inventories
fell by
6.3
t
in
May
, with sales being driven mostly through
eligible inventories. Shanghai Futures E
xchange inventories
were unchanged this month
.
•
Futures
:
Investor sentiment in gold dipped from last month’s
high
as
net
managed money positioning
fell 23
%
to
124,133
contracts
(as of
May 30
th
). Investors
raised
gold short positions
by 9
%
while long positioning contracted 15
% in
May
.
Global known ETF holdings of gold
Factors
•
Inflation
:
US
headline consumer price index (CPI)
fell further
in April
to
2.2
%
from 2.
4 % the month prior
as base effects from
low commodity prices continues to roll off
, while
US core CPI
dipped
from
2.0
% to
1.9
%.
•
Rates
:
The
US 10yr Treasury yield closed the month down at
2.2%
for
May
while
US real interest rates on a 10 year basis
were unchanged at 0.37
% after spiking to 0.54% mid
-month.
•
USD
:
The dollar continued to fall in May (
-2.1%) on investor
concerns for delays on pro-
growth US fiscal policies. Year to
date the dollar is down 5.4%, a boon for precious metals
.
Speculative positioning in
gold
futures by investors
Fundamentals
•
Physical d
emand
:
US
Mint sales for
gold
coins remained
lackluster in May and have seen the lowest sales figures in the
first 5 months since 2007. Physical retail investment typically is
more price sensitive and strong demand in 2016 coupled with
price appreciation year to date has likely deterred interest.
•
Supply
:
According to the Gold Focus 2017 report produced by
Metals Focus, mine production in 2016 increased by only 1%
while recycling supply (constituting about 1/3 of annual supply)
increased 5% led primarily by higher prices last year in sev
eral
key emerging market economies.
Gold demand by sector (excluding ETFs and similar)
$-
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$1 00 ,00 0
$1 20,0 00
$1 ,00 0
$1 ,05 0
$1 ,10 0
$1 ,15 0
$1 ,200
$1 , 250
$1 , 30 0
$1 , 35 0
$1 ,400
May -16
J un-16
J ul-16
Aug -16
Sep-16
Oc t-1 6
Nov-16
Dec-16
J an-1 7
Fe b-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
F u tur es Tr ad ing V olume ($m n)
Fr ont Month Futures Price
Volume (r hs)
Gol d Price (lhs)
5 0 dma (lhs )
200 dma (lhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 0 5 /31/1 6 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(3 00 )
(200 )
(1 00)
-
100
200
300
400
50 0
-
50 0
1,0 00
1,5 00
2,00 0
2,50 0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Met r i c t on nes of g ol d ( bot h a xes)
Cumulative gold stock in ETFs (lhs)
Mo nthly go ld net flo ws i n ETFs (rhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/07 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(1 50,0 00 )
(1 00, 000 )
(5 0,0 00)
-
50,000
100 ,00 0
150,000
200, 000
250, 000
300,0 00
350,0 00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Ma n a ged Mon ey Gol d Con t ract s
Long
Short
Net
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/09 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
55.4%
55.5%
53.5%
54.8%
54.3%
7 .8%
7 .7 %
8.7 %
9.0%
8.9%
13.0%
13.3%
1 0.1%
9.7 %
9.4%
23.2%
24.1%
2 7 .7 %
30.6%
31 .1%
0%
1 0%
20%
30%
40%
5 0%
60%
70%
80 %
90%
1 00 %
20 14
20 15
20 16
20 17F
20 18F
G ol d Dem and
Physical Invest ment
Offic ial Sec tor
Industrial
Jewelry
Sou r ce: Metals Focu s, ETF Securities. Chart
data as of 5/31/17.
Silver:
+0.8
% (
May),
-5.1% (QTD), +8.9
% (YTD)
3
For month ending May 31
st
, 2017
. Past performance is no guarantee of future results
Investment
Outlook
•
2017 continued to be a wild ride for silver in May, which after
falling to $16.2
/oz
on May 9
th
, closed
the month at $17.3
/oz
.
Investor activity was more tepid this month compared to April
with
average daily volume in silver front month contracts falling
to $7.2 billion from the $10 billion average volume in April.
•
In our 2017 base case, we believe
silver
may trade
in the $
21/
oz
range driven by hig
her inflation, a weakening US dollar (in first
half of year) and improving manufacturing growth.
•
Slowing mine production may continue to be a tailwind for
silver
prices
. As m
ining capital expenditure
and investment
continues
to
decline
, this should further weigh on silver
supply
.
Silver price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Flows
•
ETFs
: Global physically backed silver
ETFs
surged in May with
net
inflows
of 710
metric tonnes (
t)
, the highest monthly inflow
since March 2016
. Cumulative holdings
rose
3.5
%
to
20,
80
5
t
.
•
Inventories
:
COMEX
silver inventories
rose
by
149
t
in
May
led by eligible inventories which has risen for 4 consecutive
months
. Shanghai Future Exchange silver stocks fell
by 312
t
in
May
for the 3
rd
consecutive month
.
•
Futures
: Investor sentiment
turned
in
May
but still remained
positive
. N
et
speculative
positioning in futures fell
48
% (as of
May 30
th
), as short positions rose 49%
to
28,714
contracts and
long positions
fell 29
% to 70,790
contracts.
Global known ETF holdings of silver
Factors
•
Gold
price
: The
gold/silver ratio fell slightly from
73.5
to 73 as
silver stabilized amid investor demand. The ratio,
up
0.85
%
year to date, remains above the
long term average of 59 as
silver’s discount to gold continued
this month.
•
Industrial
Cycle:
US
industrial activity stabilized
in
May with
the
manufacturing PMI i
nd
ex ticking up slightly to 54.9 from
54.8 the month prior. The current
expansionary
level
is
an
encouraging sign for silver’s
industrial
demand.
•
Producer
Prices
: Input
costs to US producers rose in April
with the US
producer price index (PPI) ending at 3.9
% for
finished goods and
rising
to
2.5
% from 2.3
%
on a final demand
basis
in
April
.
Speculative positioning in
silver
futures by investors
Fundamentals
•
Solar
panel
demand
:
Silver demand for solar panels is a
growing segment of its industrial demand with record levels
expected in 2018
. US
saw
solar capacity rise 95% in 2016
.
International solar usage may spur growth amid climate
controls and growing energy needs in India and China
.
•
Supply
: According to Metals Focus, supply from mine
production
fell 0.5
% in 2016 after over 10 years of increased
output. They estimate silver min
e supply will continue to fall
in 2017 by 1.7
% due to cuts in by product output from gold
and base metal mining operations.
Silver
demand by sector (excluding ETFs and similar)
$-
$2,00 0
$4,0 00
$6,0 00
$8,0 00
$1 0,0 00
$1 2,00 0
$1 4,00 0
$1 6,00 0
$1 8,00 0
$20,000
$1 2
$1 3
$1 4
$1 5
$1 6
$1 7
$1 8
$1 9
$20
$21
$22
May -16
J un-16
J ul-16
Aug -16
Sep-16
Oc t-1 6
Nov-16
Dec-16
J an-1 7
Fe b-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
F u tur es Tr ad ing V olume ($m n)
Fr ont Month Futures Price
Volume (r hs)
Silve r Pri ce (lhs)
5 0 dma (lhs )
200 dma (lhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 0 5 /31/1 6 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(1 ,500 )
(1 ,00 0)
(5 00)
-
50 0
1,0 00
1,5 00
2,00 0
2,50 0
-
5,0 00
10, 000
15, 000
20,0 00
25,0 00
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Met r i c t on nes of si l v er ( both a xes)
Cumulative silver stock in ETFs (lhs)
Mo nthly si lver net flows i n ETFs ( rhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/07 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(8 0,0 00)
(60 ,00 0)
(40 ,00 0)
(20, 000 )
-
20,0 00
40,0 00
60,0 00
80, 000
100 ,00 0
120,0 00
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Managed Money Silver Contracts
Long
Short
Net
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/09 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
44.6%
43.6%
49.5%
48.9%
48.4%
4.2%
3.9%
4.0%
3.8%
3.5%
23.4%
23.8%
24.4%
24.5%
24.6%
2 7 .7 %
29.1%
21.9%
21.6%
21.5%
0%
1 0%
20%
30%
40%
5 0%
60%
70%
80 %
90%
1 00 %
20 14
20 15
20 16F
20 17F
20 18F
S i lv er Deman d
Physical Invest ment
Jewelry & Silverware
Photography
Industrial
Sou r ce: Metals Focu s, ETF Securities. Chart
data as of 2/24/17
Platinum:
+0
.5% (May
), -0.1% (QTD), +5.2
% (YTD)
4
For month ending May 31
st
, 2017
. Past performance is no guarantee
of future results.
Investment Outlook
•
Platin
um
rebuffed its downward trend last month by rising
0.5
%
to
$950
/oz
in
May, averaging
$749 million in daily
futures trading volume
.
•
We currently like the risk-
reward for p
latinum over the next
year and our base
-case sees platinum’s fair value near
US$1020/oz
as
defensive asset
demand and global growth
may support platinum, despite recent weakness.
•
Under a bullish scenario platinum could potentially rise to
$1100/oz as geopolitical risk drives gold while a bearish
scenario could see platinum falling to $910/oz amid further
weakness in the South African Rand (ZAR).
Platinum price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Flows
•
ETFs
: Global physically backed platinum ETFs
saw
a
significant increase
of
3 metric tonnes (
t)
in May. This
brought c
umulative platinum holdings to 78.3 as of month
end
, up
6.7% year to date.
•
Inventories:
NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)
platinum
inventories
in
May
saw
drawdowns of 898
ounces
, a
0.4% monthly drop
.
•
Futures:
Net speculative positioning in platinum futures
turned negative for the first time on record (as of May 30
th
).
This was driven by
a 75%
rise in short
positions
to near two-
year highs.
Global known ETF holdings of platinum
Factors
•
South African Rand
: The
South African Rand
strengthened 2
%
in
May continuing its recover
y following
political turmoil and credit downgrades in South Africa
.
•
Euro
Auto Sales
: April
Western
European light vehicle
sales
fell
by
37
% from March and 7.1% year over year
•
Chinese C
onsumer
: Retail
sales
in China
fell slightly to
10.7
%
in
April but remain robust as continued signs of China
rotating from industrial led expansion to more consumer led
gr owth
may
benefit discretionary spending on jewelry
.
Speculative positioning in
platinum futures by investors
Fundamentals
•
Demand
: Autocatalyst demand for platinum is expected to
fall 2% in 2017 for the first time since 2013
while jewelry
demand is expected to rise 1% as Chinese demand stabilizes
with gains in US and India
, according t
o the Platinum 2017
Focus report by Metals Focus
.
•
Supply
: According to Metals Focus, platinum mine
production is expected to
fall again in 2017 by 1% driven by
higher production costs and lower output in Zimbabwe.
Turning to South Africa, the world’s
largest producer
, a 1
%
drop
is forecast for 2017 following a 3% decrease last year.
Recycling supply is expected to increase from autocatalysts.
Platinum
demand by sector (excluding ETFs and similar)
$-
$5 00
$1 ,00 0
$1 , 50 0
$2,00 0
$2,5 00
$80 0
$85 0
$90 0
$95 0
$1 ,00 0
$1 ,05 0
$1 ,10 0
$1 ,15 0
$1 ,200
May -16
J un-16
J ul-16
Aug -16
Sep-16
Oc t-1 6
Nov-16
Dec-16
J an-1 7
Fe b-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
F u tur es Tr ad ing V olume ($m n)
Fr ont Month Futures Price
Volume (r hs)
Platinum Price (lhs)
5 0 dma (lhs )
200 dma (lhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 0 5 /31/1 6 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(8 )
(6)
(4)
(2)
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Metric tonnes of platinum (both axes)
Cumulative platinum st ock in ETFs (lhs)
Monthly plat inum n et flows in ETFs (rhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/07 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(40 ,00 0)
(30, 000 )
(20, 000 )
(1 0,0 00)
-
10, 000
20,0 00
30,00 0
40,0 00
50,000
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Managed Money Platinum Contracts
Long
Short
Net
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/09 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
41.6%
40.2%
41.7 %
42.4%
41 .8%
33.2%
30.1%
28.9%
32.6%
33.8%
23.4%
20.8%
21.5%
21 .8%
21 .8%
1.7 %
8.9%
7 .9%
3.1%
2.3%
0%
1 0%
20%
30%
40%
5 0%
60%
70%
80 %
90%
1 00 %
20 14
20 15
20 16
20 17F
20 18F
Pl a tinum Dem and
Physical Invest ment
Industrial
Jewelry
Autocatalyst
Sou r ce: Metals Focu s, ETF Securities. Chart
data as of 5/31/17.
Palladium:
-0.9
% (May
), +2.6
% (QTD), +2
0.3
% (YTD)
5
For month ending May 31
st
, 2017
. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Investment Outlook
•
Palladium
upward
trajectory
took a breath as the price
realized its first monthly drop in May of 0.9%
. After falling to
$759.9/oz on May 19
th
, palladium quickly rebounded and
resumed its momentum higher to end the month at $819.2.
•
Daily volume in palladium
front month contracts averaged
$511
million in May
, well
above the $
322
million in the
prior
month
.
•
Given palladium’s demand is most sensitive
to the industrial
production cycle
, palladium may see further support along
with
industrial metals
in anticipation of a rise in US
infrastructure spending
and
recovery in global growth.
Palladium
price, daily moving average (dma), and volume
Flows
•
ETFs
: Global physically backed palladium
ETFs
posted
net
outflows
in
May
of
0. 7 metric tonnes (
t)
as retail investors
remain disinterested
. Cumulative
palladium
holdings
totalled
46.7
t
which is
down 31.5
%
over
the last 12 months
.
•
Inventories:
NYMEX p
alladium
inventories
continued to
see
drawdowns
in
May
amounting to 9,804
ounces
(down
18.7
%
from
last month) with total holdings
of
42,750
ounces
.
•
Futures:
Net speculative positioning in palladium
futures
dipped 15
%
in
May
to
18,709
contracts
(as of May 30
th
), while
long
positions fell 11% and short positions
rose 51
%.
Global known ETF holdings of palladium
Factors
•
Global Auto Sales
: Chinese
passenger vehicle sales
fell
18%
in
April partially offsetting the
28
%
gain
in
March
. US
auto
sales
rose
to
1.51
million in May ending flat on a year over
year
basis
and
a 6.5
%
increase
from
April
.
•
Market Balance
: Expected
continued supply deficits,
growing demand, and drawdowns in above ground stocks
have kept the market balance for palladium favorable.
•
Industrial Metals
: Palladium
’s correlation
to industrial
metals
(0.57)
is the highest among precious metals and the
recent rally in industrial metals
, which are up 16.7
%
year over
year, has benefitted palladium demand and performance
.
Speculative positioning in
palladium futures by investors
Fundamentals
•
Demand
: Autocatalyst demand for palladium is expected to
rise 2% in 2017 after realizing a 5% increase in 2016 demand
led by China, US and
India, according to the Platinum 2017
Focus report by Metals Focus
.
•
Supply
: Global palladium supply deficits have persisted
since 2012
making palladium’s fundamentals very supportive
for prices.
Deficits
rose to 1.17 million ounces in 2016 and are
expected to persist and grow to 1.38 million ounces in 2017
according to Metals Focus, which
should
add
further support
to
palladium
.
Palladium demand by sector (excluding ETFs and similar)
$-
$20 0
$40 0
$60 0
$80 0
$1 ,00 0
$1 ,200
$1 ,400
$45 0
$5 00
$5 50
$60 0
$65 0
$70 0
$75 0
$80 0
$85 0
May -16
J un-16
J ul-16
Aug -16
Sep-16
Oc t-1 6
Nov-16
Dec-16
J an-1 7
Fe b-17
Mar -17
Apr -17
May -17
F u tur es Tr ad ing V olume ($m n)
Fr ont Month Futures Price
Volume (r hs)
Palladi um Price (lhs)
5 0 dma (lhs )
200 dma (lhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 0 5 /31/1 6 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(1 5)
(1 0)
(5 )
-
5
10
15
20
25
-
20
40
60
80
100
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Met r i c t on nes of pa l l a di um ( bot h a xes)
Cumul ative pall adium s toc k i n ET Fs ( lhs)
Monthly palladium net flows in ETFs (rhs)
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/07 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
(1 5,00 0)
(1 0,0 00)
(5 ,00 0)
-
5,0 00
10, 000
15, 000
20,0 00
25,0 00
30,00 0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Managed Money Palladium Contracts
Long
Short
Net
Sou r c e: Bl oom berg, ET F Sec u riti es. Chart dat a from 1 2/31/09 t o 0 5 /31/1 7.
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
7 4.3%
7 5 .7 %
77.3%
77.9%
77.8%
21.3%
21 .1%
19.9%
20.5%
20.1%
3.9%
2.9%
2.7 %
2.5%
2.5%
0%
1 0%
20%
30%
40%
5 0%
60%
70%
80 %
90%
1 00 %
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
Pa l ladium Demand
Jewelry
Industrial
Autocatalyst
Physical Invest ment
Sou r ce: Metals Focu s, ETF Securities. Chart
data as of 5/31/17.
ETF Securities (US
) L
LC
405 Lexington Avenue
New York
NY 10174
United
States
t +1 844
– ETFS
– BUY (844 383
7289)
f +1 212 918 4801
e infoUS@etfsecurities.com
w etfsecurities.com
Important Risks
The statements and opinions expressed are those of
the author and are as of the date of this report. All information is historical and not indicative of
future results and subject to change. Reader should not assume that an investment in any securities and/or precious metals mentioned was or would
be profi
table in the future. This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. Past performance does not guarantee future resu
lts.
The ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium Trust and ETFS
Precious Metals Basket Trust are
no
t investment companies registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 or a commodity pool for purposes of the
Commodity Exchange Act. Shares of the Trusts are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds. These
investments are not s
uitable for all investors. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience greater volatility.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors
. Trusts focusing on a single commodity generally experience
greater volatili
ty. Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trusts. Shares in the Tru
sts are not
FDIC insured and may lose value and have no bank guarantee.
The value of the Shares relates directly to the value of th
e precious metal held by the Trust and fluctuations in the price could materially adversely
affect investment in the Shares. Several factors may affect the price of precious metals, including:
•
A change in economic conditions, such as a recession, can adver
sely affect the price of the precious metal held by the Trust. Some metals are
used in a wide range of industrial applications, and an economic downturn could have a negative impact on its demand and, con
sequently,
its price and the price of the Shares;
•
In
vestors’ expectations with respect to the rate of inflation;
•
Currency exchange rates;
•
interest rates;
•
Investment and trading activities of hedge funds and commodity funds; and
•
Global or regional political, economic or financial events and situations. Shou
ld there be an increase in the level of hedge activity of the
precious metal held by the trust or producing companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely a
ffecting the
price of the Shares. Should there be an increase in the
level of hedge activity of the precious metal held by the Trusts or producing
companies, it could cause a decline in world precious metal prices, adversely affecting the price of the shares.
Also, should the speculative community take a negative view
towards the precious metal held by the Trusts, it could cause a decline in prices,
negatively impacting the price of the shares. There is a risk that part or all of the Trusts’ physical precious metal could b
e lost, damaged or stolen.
Failure by the Custod
ian or Sub-
Custodian to exercise due care in the safekeeping of the precious metal held by the Trusts could result in a loss to the
Trusts.
The Trusts will not insure its precious metals and shareholders cannot be assured that the custodian will maintain a
dequate insurance or any
insurance with respect to the precious metals held by the custodian on behalf of the Trust. Consequently, a loss may be suffered with respect to the
Trust’s precious metal that is not covered by insurance.
Commodities generally are
volatile and are not suitable for all investors.
Please refer to the prospectus for complete information regarding all risks associated with the Trust.
Investors buy and sell shares on a secondary market (i.e., not directly from Trusts). Only market maker
s or “authorized
participants” may trade directly with the Trusts, typically in blocks of 50k to 100k shares
.
ETFS Physical Precious Metals Basket Index reflects the daily performance of a basket with the following components and ratios: gold (0.030oz), silver
(1.100oz), platinum (0.004oz) and palladium (0.006oz). Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is a broadly dive
rsified commodity price index. Futures
contract = agreement traded on an organized exchange to buy or sell assets at a fixed price but to be delivered and paid for later. Long position = buying of an
asset with the expectation the asset will rise in value.
Short position = sale of a borrowed asset with the expectation that the asset will fall in value. Spot price =
current market price at which an asset is bought or sold for immediate payment and delivery.
S&P 500 Index is a capitalization
-weighted index of
500 stocks
selected by the Standard & Poor’s Index Committee designed to represent the performance of the leading industries in the U.S.
economy. MSCI Emerging
Markets (EM) Index is an equity index that captures large and midcap representation across Emer
ging Markets countries. Barclays US Aggregate Bond Index
is a broad
-based flagship benchmark measuring investment grade, US dollar, fixed
-rate taxable bond market. The US Dollar (USD)
Index is an index (or
measure) of the value of the United States dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of US trade partners' currencies. The
Euro/US Dollar exchange rate is the relative pricing of the euro (the official currency of the European Union) and the US dol
lar. The US Dollar/
Japanese Yen
exchange rate is the relative pricing of the yen (the official currency of Japan) and the US dollar. The HFRX Global Hedge Fu
nd Index is designed to be
representative of the overall composition of the hedge fund universe. Year over year = the percent change over a full calendar year. The Consumer Price Index
(CPI) is a measure that examines the weighted average of prices of a basket of consumer goods and services; headline includes
all categories while core
excludes food and energy. South Afric
an Rand (ZAR) = official currency of South Africa. The Purchasing Manufacturing PMI Index (PMI) is an indicator of the
economic health of the manufacturing sector. Producer Price index (PPI) measures the average change in selling prices receive
d by domesti
c producers of
goods and services. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is the central banking system of the Un
ited States of America. COMEX (Commodity Exchange) is
the primary
market for trading metals such as gold, silver
, copper and aluminium. NYMEX = New York Me
rcantile Exchange. The Paris Agreement, or Paris climate accord
and Paris climate agreement, is an agreement within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) dealin
g with greenhouse gas
emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.
Commodities generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors. This material must be accompanied or preceded by the
prospectus. Carefully consider each Trust’s investment objectives, risk factors, and fees and expenses before investing. Please
click here
to view the prospectus.
ALPS Distributors, Inc. is the marketing agent for ETFS Silver Trust, ETFS Gold Trust, ETFS Platinum Trust, ETFS Palladium
Trust and ETFS Precious Metals Basket Trust.
Maxwell Gold is a registered representative of ALPS Distributors, Inc.
ETF0011
67
05/31
/18
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