Outlook 2021: Tackling the trilemma

Jeroen Blokland | Portfolio Manager
Peter van der Welle | Strategist Global Macro team
Ernesto Sanichar | Senior Portfolio Manager

Finding the right balance between three things – public health, normal economic functioning, and personal freedoms – will be the main challenge for policymakers in 2021. As these problems surfaced with the Covid-19 outbreak, it can be expected that a vaccine would solve most of the problems.

In general, we believe 2021 will be a good year for risky assets, with equities realizing above average returns in our base case. However, in a scenario in which a working Covid-19 vaccine is not readily available to a large part of the global population in 2021, all bets are off and all risky assets will realize negative returns.

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