On Demographics; An Old Argument Revisited
ON DEMOGRAPHICS; AN OLD
ARGUMENT REVISITED... But this time with
the hardest of data, for as has been said in the past and
shall be said again in the future, "Demographics is
destiny." In the industrialized world, this is especially true
for in the industrialized world people are living longer and
fewer and fewer babies are being born, making the
problem of retirement a more and more serious problem
indeed. Using data from the UN, from RBC Capital
Markets and from The Financial Times we note the
following.
Let's look at the percentage of the populations of the industrialized nations for various age groups starting with the present and moving to the UN's projections for 2050 and 2100 (with all percentages round to the nearest 1%):
2015 2050 2100
0 to 14 years of age 26% 22% 17%
15 to 24 years of age 16 14 12
25 to 44 years of age 29 27 25
45 to 64 years of age 20 23 24
65 to 79 years of age 7 12 15
80 and above 2 3 5
Notice how in the group's below 44 years of age, the percentages drop consistently, while in the cohorts 45 and above the percentages rise. Simply put, this is not a good thing; simply put this is not the hallmark of a healthy demographic environment; simply put, this is the pathway to demographic disaster.
If we wish to look at it another way, let's consider the percentage of the population of various industrialized countries that are 65 and above:
1960 1980 2000 2010 Today
Japan 5% 7% 17% 23% 25%
Australia 7 9 11 13 15
The US 9 13 16 17 18
The U.K. 12 15 16 16 17
THE EU 8 12 13 13 15
The changes are dramatic, with the number of Japanese elderly as a percentage of the total population rising by 500% between 1960 and today. In Australia and the EU the percentages nearly doubled; in the US it has almost precisely doubled and only in the UK has the percentage 7 risen by only by less than 50%. In other words, the industrialized world is indeed growing older by the hour, with the trends in most instances accelerating.
Let's look at the percentage of the populations of the industrialized nations for various age groups starting with the present and moving to the UN's projections for 2050 and 2100 (with all percentages round to the nearest 1%):
2015 2050 2100
0 to 14 years of age 26% 22% 17%
15 to 24 years of age 16 14 12
25 to 44 years of age 29 27 25
45 to 64 years of age 20 23 24
65 to 79 years of age 7 12 15
80 and above 2 3 5
Notice how in the group's below 44 years of age, the percentages drop consistently, while in the cohorts 45 and above the percentages rise. Simply put, this is not a good thing; simply put this is not the hallmark of a healthy demographic environment; simply put, this is the pathway to demographic disaster.
If we wish to look at it another way, let's consider the percentage of the population of various industrialized countries that are 65 and above:
1960 1980 2000 2010 Today
Japan 5% 7% 17% 23% 25%
Australia 7 9 11 13 15
The US 9 13 16 17 18
The U.K. 12 15 16 16 17
THE EU 8 12 13 13 15
The changes are dramatic, with the number of Japanese elderly as a percentage of the total population rising by 500% between 1960 and today. In Australia and the EU the percentages nearly doubled; in the US it has almost precisely doubled and only in the UK has the percentage 7 risen by only by less than 50%. In other words, the industrialized world is indeed growing older by the hour, with the trends in most instances accelerating.
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