May We Live in Interesting Times
The iconic essay “The End of History,” authored by Francis Fukuyama in
1989, celebrated the triumph of liberal democracy, markets and
globalization and seemed to capture the moment of the Fall of the Berlin
Wall but now may prove to be short-lived. A mere 27 years later
investors find themselves facing increased market volatility along with
increasing frequency of “tail” occurrences (previously thought to be too
remote to merit attention), largely driven by socio-political forces,
headline news, negative interest rates, unprecedented experiments in
monetary expansion, asset bubbles driven by credit expansion,
deflationary winds and the most significant of all, the questioning of
the ideological tenets of unrestrained free-markets and globalization.
US Markets had a roller coaster week with the continuing fallout from
the BREXIT referendum followed by a near recovery by the end of the week
showing the resilience of US Equity Markets. Nevertheless, our Global
Fund Flow Summary indicates that investors pulled money out of all asset
classes except Fixed Income the past week. As the economy and markets
adjust to the consequences of BREXIT and a plummeting pound, the short
term possibility of a recession will continue to exist in the UK. Japan
continues to fight a surging yen on its way to 100/1 USD and with that,
renewed deflationary winds. The fear of further “exit” referendums in
the EU, continued mass migration flows from chaotic regions near the EU
and bolder terrorist attacks are likely to feed investors fear and thus
volatility in the markets going forward. Commodities and energy are
likely to continue to be subject to economic reports. Alternatively,
Precious Metals continue their upward march. Both $SGDJ and $SGDM
dominate the top positions in Basic Materials our Equity Select List.
SGDM moved up significantly in our Behavioral Quant Model.
Reviewing this week’s Select List and Quant Movers, quality Asian ETFs
like $EWY and $FXI and in Europe, $EWG and $FEZ all score an attractive 66
or more in our Quant Score model. Dividend strategies like MOAT and
infrastructure strategies like $EMLP, $EMIF, $EEM and core quality
positions like $IEFA are also attractive. In the US, $IYT and $IVOV score
high as well in our Quant Model. High Quality Fixed Income Funds
continue to attract investor assets despite potential interest rate
risk.
Potential beneficiaries of these trends are likely to be ETFs, tactical
asset management and potentially nimble active managers. Periods of
heightened volatility have traditionally increased volume in ETFs. In
Europe alone according to The Financial Times, demand for iShare
products surged over 3x normal in USD terms.
Long-term investors favoring traditional asset allocation strategies are
likely to be penalized in this type of news and event-driven market.
Fortunately for investors, the ETP marketplace has evolved to offer
investors over 1,900 US listed products. There is virtually an ETP to
offer investors exposure or protection to almost any plausible
investment scenario. Subscribers to ETF Global can use the ETF Screener
to identify those vehicles. The success to date of State Capitalist
powers like China and Russia as well as ideological challenges from
Islamic Fundamentalism assures us that we are nowhere near realizing
Fukuyama’s observation.
Thank you for reading ETF Global Perspectives!
More from Chris Romano, CFA
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