Raphael Figueredo, CNPI
July 04, 2016
Raphael Figueredo, CNPI @ Clear Brokerage
Technical Analyst

Markets will not hold this rally much longer

  1. Simple idea that investor are running for a safety assets
  2. Utilities and Consumer Staples still outperforming
  3. Emerging markets are more attractive

1o Chart we see a relative strength (ratio Nasdaq/Sp500) and beside a recently rally, we still can see new low ratio. Tech are underperforming cash markets. Sign of low leverage from investors.
2o charts we inversion relationship between Utilities sector (from US) and yields (US, German and Japan).
Yield are so much low that money are running out for defensive stock that can pay dividend. Some cases its pays more than yields. Are the investors looking for safety place at defensive equities markets?

If central banks from all around the worlds still stimulus your markets, assets still going up at certain level to make a bubble sometime.
The question is: How SP500 can be so close to the highest level in history, if other economies still very slow.
During that period of stimulus i suggest to go emerging like Brazil. Political risk are low as well as 5 years CDS. Good perspective median term.

Best,
Raphael Figueredo
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