January 11, 2018
Founding Partner, Chief Investment Officer AMPHI Research and Trading, LLC
"Likely" or "Probable" there is a difference in the language when you start talking about recommendations in the new year
I love this reformulated graph on the old work by Sherman Kent on the potential futility when using language to describe probabilities. There is a lot of ambiguity in the meaning of certain terms. One man's doubt is not another's "little chance" and one man's "likely" is not another's "probable". If you use words, back them up with some numbers.
A new year's resolution for your next investment meeting or when a manager comes into your office and they say "we believe ...", should be to ask them to assign probabilities to what they are recommending. That should be an interesting experiment.
I love this reformulated graph on the old work by Sherman Kent on the potential futility when using language to describe probabilities. There is a lot of ambiguity in the meaning of certain terms. One man's doubt is not another's "little chance" and one man's "likely" is not another's "probable". If you use words, back them up with some numbers.
A new year's resolution for your next investment meeting or when a manager comes into your office and they say "we believe ...", should be to ask them to assign probabilities to what they are recommending. That should be an interesting experiment.
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