Is the US economy really that different since COVID?

”Don’t be fooled by the rocks that I got, I’m still Jenny from the block.” – Jennifer Lopez

It seems that not a day goes by without economists commenting on the resilience of the US economy in the face of higher interest rates. This line of thinking has permeated the Federal Reserve (Fed), with many regional Fed presidents claiming that the neutral rate, at which monetary policy is neither restrictive nor expansionary, is higher than it was pre-COVID. But is it? With most of the data for the fourth quarter of 2023 now in, it is worth looking at the current state of inflation, employment, growth, productivity, and debt compared to their pre-COVID levels to see what, if anything, is truly different.