Is the bond market pricing in a Trump Presidency?
It wasn't until mid-summer 2015 when the polls started to show that Trump was not simply some "unelectable" candidate who didn't stand a chance of becoming the Republican presidential front-runner. You can see the poll results converge between Clinton and Trump from this point into September 2015:
It wasn't until this time that everyone started to take his presidential campaign more seriously. It was also around this time that Trump started to making negative comments about Mexico.
Interestingly, this is also when Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) on the Government of Mexico (in yellow) started to widen relative to an index of sovereigns in the rest of emerging markets (in white), as seen below:
To continue reading click here https://www.fortuityriskanalytics.com/blogs/news/is-the-bond-market-pricing-in-a-trump-presidency
It wasn't until this time that everyone started to take his presidential campaign more seriously. It was also around this time that Trump started to making negative comments about Mexico.
Interestingly, this is also when Credit Default Swaps (CDSs) on the Government of Mexico (in yellow) started to widen relative to an index of sovereigns in the rest of emerging markets (in white), as seen below:
To continue reading click here https://www.fortuityriskanalytics.com/blogs/news/is-the-bond-market-pricing-in-a-trump-presidency
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