November 25, 2014

Research Analyst at Height Securities, LLC

Investment Bias Quiz. What Is Your Investment Bias?

I'm in no way affiliated with State Street Global Advisors, but really liked this investment bias quiz. It is especially good for providing incite to active traders.

http://hvst.co/1vH296q

Disclaimers

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Technology News: Game Theory Used To Create Perfect Poker Player

Scientists in Canada have created an A.I. that can beat any human at poker. This has implications for all probability based scenarios including trading. One of the main hurdles for A.I. has been solving probabilities with imperfect information. ...

Jan 09, 2015

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Market Psychology: there will still be a "Santa Claus Rally"

Two factors have pulled down equity valuations and increased volatility since last week. The price of oil declined a little more on top of the massive landslide earlier this year, and the FOMC meets today to discuss interest rate increases. This is ...

Dec 16, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Technology Values (Invest in the future on the dip).

Market beta has been a strong driver for $TSLA valuation over the past year, and with the latest downturn we’ve seen shares decrease significantly in price. This is not a piece about how to trade $TSLA over the next 6 months. I am writing about ...

Dec 11, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

On The Horizon: FOMC Meeting, Bond Market Bubble, and U.S. Equities.

While it appears many have been participating in the "Santa Claus Rally", watch out for the week ahead. The FOMC releases the interest rate hike schedule for next year on December 17th. Today's dip in U.S. equities was likely a precursor to what is ...

Dec 09, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Investing In Chinese Mobile Phone Manufacturers - Portfolios With Purpose 2015

http://hvst.co/1AnFudA I've entered into this year's PwP competition, and would like to invite the Harvest community to join in on the fun. This is a great way to give back to a cause you care about this holiday season, and enjoy some competitive ...

Dec 05, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Consumer Discretionary Returns To Make You Thankful.

Navigating the consumer discretionary sector in the midst of the Thanksgiving holiday weekend is fraught with perils and rewards. I have to admit a love for consumer discretionary, because it is the one sector where you can physically see the ...

Nov 22, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Trading Politics Mini-Case G4S ($GFS.L / $GFSZY)

I recently wrote about trading politics. There is a strong correlation between politics and equity market valuations. In recent years this has been a stronger driver than fundamental value or even market momentum. This week has provided ...

Nov 21, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Trading Politics (Keystone XL, Oil Prices, Defense, Tech)

We live in a time where the fundamental nature of trading is changing. Just look at hedge fund returns to get a picture of this. The HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index has only returned 4.78% over the last 12 months. It isn’t much better ...

Nov 19, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Duke beats out Harvard Business School in rankings.

Off topic from investing, but saw this pop up on the Bloomberg. It's not everyday you get to beat Harvard at something academic. Really proud to be a part of this university! Now we just need to beat UNC basketball. http://hvst.co/1tE4do9

Nov 12, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

The Value of Harvest (Alpha & Pink Sheet Ideas)

I originally joined harvest back in August, and since then have really been trying to find where it fits in my idea generation toolbox. At first it seemed as though the competition and model portfolio was the primary value driver. However, given ...

Nov 07, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Event Driven Strategy In a VIX World

I've gotten tired of waiting on GPRO t o drop and even out my model portfolio. Slow and steady wins the race, etc. I still have faith that fundamentals will take over and have netted up my model short positions, as an extremely levered short ...

Nov 06, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

GPRO: Old school camera, counting on strong brick and mortar retail...

Prior to the GoPro debut, what would you have thought of this pitch? I've got a regular digital camera, like the ones everyone used 5 years ago, but the edge is it is water proof and you can strap it to a dog. We are counting on strong retail sales ...

Aug 29, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

"Fetch" Proves GPRO Is Just A Camera Company

I wrote an article before the last GPRO dip that explained the over valuation of GoPro as a social media company. While the retail investors seem to be scooping up the new accessory add on "Fetch", I see it as proof this is a hardware company. Any ...

Aug 27, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

$RRGB, missed historic earnings trend. Pushing the bad news into this quarter? Or broken model? CEO ran $LOCO, similar future problems?

Aug 14, 2014

Nils Tracy, Height Securities

Ukraine, Ebola, and August correction. Time to go shopping for Value.

Aug 06, 2014