March 03, 2025
A diversified, global asset management firm with over $754 billion in assets under management, offering clients access to specialized, investment teams through its family of affiliated boutiques.
Investing Essentials: Why equities continue to make sense today
Periods of high inflation and economic recessions have not stopped the long-term trend of equity markets.
https://www.newyorklifeinvestments.com/assets/documents/education/investing-essentials-why-equities-make-sense-today.pdf
Equities Have Had a Long History of Resilience Through Periods of High Inflation and Recessions.
Periods of high inflation and economic recessions have not stopped the long-term trend of equity markets
When equities are impacted by macro events, they have typically bounced back to their upward trend. Additionally, market volatility has historically offered active equity
managers the potential to better position portfolios for the longer term.
Why equities continue to make sense in today’s environment
NOT FDIC INSURED | MAY LOSE VALUE | NO BANK GUARANTEE
Investing Essentials
Sources: New York Life Investments Global Market Strategy Team, S&P 500 Index, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, NBER, Macrobond, 1/1/1940 – 2/12/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. An investment cannot be made directly
into an index. Index definitions can be found on the next page.
0
1
10
100
1000
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
S&P 500 Returns (%)
S&P 500 (log scale)
S&P 500 Bull Market (left axis)
S&P 500 Bear Market (left axis)
S&P 500 (log scale, right axis)
CPI > 4%
Recession
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
LTCM
3
bailout–1998
Dot-com
Bubble
bursts–2000
C OV ID -19
Pandemic–
2020
The Great
Inflation
1
begins–1965
Global
Financial Crisis
begins
–
2007
U.S./China
Trade War
begins–2018
Post-Pandemic
Inflation
–
2021
Gulf War
begins–1991
Banking
Crisis
2
–1982
Cuban Missile
Crisis–1962
Suez Canal
Crisis–1956
U.S. enters
W WII –1941
Asian Financial
Crisis
–
1997
Black Monday–
1987
Vietnam War
begins–1964
Market
Crash–1946
OPEC Oil
Embargo–1973
Korean War
begins–1950
For more information
800-624-6782
newyorklifeinvestments.com
1. The Great Inflation refers to a period of high inflation that occurred in the United States from 1965 to 1982.
2. Penn Square Bank of Oklahoma City fails sending shockwaves through the U.S. banking system.
3. Long Term Capital Management (LTCM) collapses leading to a $3.7 billion bailout.
Satellite exposure
represents an actively managed portion of a portfolio in which a portfolio manager’s skill provides an opportunity to earn greater returns than the broad market benchmark, as opposed to the “core” portion of a portfolio which may be
passively managed. The
S&P 500 Index
is an unmanaged index that is widely regarded as the standard for measuring large-cap U.S. stock market performance. The
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
is a measure of the average change over time in the
prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The
National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
traditionally defines recession as a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and
that lasts more than a few months.
All investments are subject to market risk, including possible loss of principal. Diversification cannot assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. The information contained herein is general in nature and is provided solely for educational and
informational purposes. New York Life does not provide legal, accounting, or tax advice. You should obtain advice specific to your circumstances from your own legal, accounting, and tax advisors.
The Global Market Strategy team is a part of New York Life Investment Management LLC, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of New York Life Insurance Company.
“New York Life Investments” is both a service mark, and the common trade name, of certain investment advisors affiliated with New York Life Insurance Company. Securities distributed by NYLIFE Distributors LLC, 30 Hudson Street, Jersey
City, NJ 07302, Member FINRA/SIPC.
5594237
MS18hh-02/25
•
Investing in equities can deliver enhanced long-term returns, but at the cost of higher risk. Investors
can tend to see higher risk-adjusted returns by diversifying their portfolio with a more dynamic
equity allocation and a less correlated asset class, such as fixed income, including core and
corporate bonds.
•
The sample portfolio (left) is the result of the New York Life Investments’ Global Market Strategy
team’s portfolio modeling and optimization analysis. Over a historical period (1973-2024),
this
hypothetical portfolio has tended to outperform the all-equity and traditional 60/40
portfolio over the long-term.
•
Within equities, investors should consider an overweight to
high dividend-yielding equity
with
additional exposure to large-cap equity (value and growth) and value equity (all-capitalizations).
Also, in the current market environment, we expect satellite exposure to
infrastructure equity
and/or
currency hedged international equity
could outperform the broader market.
•
Within bonds, diversifying core (income) bonds with
municipal
bond and
corporate
bond
exposure was found to raise risk-adjusted returns and reduce the average drawdown.
−
Given that the yield curve is normalizing, and we see more upside risk at the long end of the U.S.
Treasury curve, we think investors should consider reducing duration with satellite exposure to
short-duration high-yield bonds.
−
We also expect a sustained period of yield curve volatility. Accordingly, we believe
taxable
municipal bonds
may provide quality, long-dated duration with an attractive yield potential.
5%
Short-Duration
High-Yield Securities
5%
Infrastructure Equity
5%
Currency Hedged
International Equity
25%
Core Bonds
10%
Municipal
or Corporate Bonds
30%
High Dividend-
Yielding Equity
10%
Value Equity
10%
Large Cap Equity
New, rebalanced 60/40 portfolio
Consider a new, rebalanced 60/40 equity to fixed income portfolio
F
or illustrative purposes only
. T
here is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be
effective
.
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