How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Feel Different
The short- and long-term asset allocation implications of a prolonged period of higher inflation
Commentary
The recent past has been boosted by a low-inflation regime
During the past 25 years, near-term business-cycle fluctuations generally occurred
amid a long-term trend of low and relatively steady inflation. History demonstrates
that when inflation is low and less volatile, this “low-inflation regime” backdrop
provides several important attributes, including:
•
The growth outlook (i.e., changes in the business cycle) tends to be the key driver
of asset performance.
When recession risk rises significantly, more defensive assets
such as bonds tend to perform well, while low and falling recession probabilities tend
to favor the outperformance of stocks and other riskier asset classes.
How a Higher Secular Inflation
Backdrop May Make This
Business Cycle Feel Different
The short- and long-term asset allocation implications of
a prolonged period of higher inflation
KEY TAKEAWAYS
•
The 2022 downturn in both stocks and bonds is in part a reflection of how a more
inflationary backdrop presents unique challenges for the business cycle compared
to the past three decades.
•
We believe the odds are high that we’ve transitioned to a medium-term “high-
inflation regime,” which implies more persistent inflationary pressures create
some differences in how the business cycle affects asset performance patterns.
•
Nevertheless, we believe cyclical inflation has peaked and will trend lower over
the next 12 months. Late-cycle economic conditions are currently entrenched.
•
From an asset allocation perspective, these dynamics imply potentially prolonged
market volatility due to greater uncertainty about the outlook for bond yields,
Federal Reserve policy, and stock-bond correlations.
•
Historically, when recession risks escalated substantially, they dominated
inflationary pressures and created a better environment for bonds’ performance
versus stocks. Today, the near-term risk of recession in the U.S. remains moderate
although it will likely continue to rise over the coming year.
Collin Crownover, PhD
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
Cait Dourney, CFA
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
Dirk Hofschire, CFA
Senior Vice President
Asset Allocation Research
Jake Weinstein, CFA
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
|
2
•
Growth surprises and the corresponding monetary policy changes of the
Federal Reserve (Fed) tend to occur in the same direction.
If growth is strong,
the Fed will be more likely to normalize or tighten monetary conditions. If growth
falters (recession risks rise), the Fed will be more likely to stop tightening or ease.
•
Stocks and bonds are generally negatively correlated and hence good
diversifiers.
Because the Fed is relatively free to enact counter-cyclical monetary
policy, faltering growth generally allows interest rates to fall. A growth scare that
may be negative for stocks is generally positive for bonds, and vice versa, which
cushions the volatility in a balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds (Exhibit 1).
EXHIBIT 1:
Stocks tend to move in the opposite direction as bonds during low-inflation periods, but diversification
becomes more difficult during high-inflation periods when stock-bond correlations tend to be positive.
Stock and Treasury Bond Correlations vs. Inflation
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Fidelity proprietary analysis using historical
index returns. Domestic Equity—Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; Intermediate Treasuries—Bloomberg U.S. Intermediate Treasury Bond Index. Fidelity
proprietary analysis of historical asset class performance is not indicative of future performance. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Bloomberg
Finance L.P., Fidelity Investments (AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
0%
5%
10%
15%
Year-over-Year
3-Year Correlations
Higher Inflation
Core CPI
2% Level
Rolling 3-Year Correlation
Positive Correlations
Negative Correlations
Lower Inflation
0 Level
–0.8
–0.6
–0.4
–0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
2022
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
2018
2020
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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3
EXHIBIT 2:
With inflation generally low and below its target rate over the past 25 years, the Federal Reserve was free to
ease policy when economic growth or financial conditions became worrying.
Inflation vs. Federal Funds Rate
Inflation: Core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments
(AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
The benefits of this low-inflation regime have been
apparent in recent decades.
•
From 1997 through the end of 2020, inflation averaged
just over 2%, with the Fed’s preferred measure of
inflation—the core Personal Consumption Expenditures
Price Index (PCE)—never rising above 2.6% (Exhibit 2).
•
The low-inflation environment allowed the Federal
Reserve to maintain unusually accommodative
policies, even during economic expansions, as well
as respond to downturns vigorously.
•
During that time, U.S. stocks had a –0.3% correlation
with bonds.
1
When stock prices declined, bond yields
dropped and cushioned the blow.
•
The Fed was able to respond when markets became
volatile, even when there was little evidence of a U.S.
economic slowdown. The Fed either eased policy or
postponed its tightening plans in response to stock-
market downturns in 2011, 2015, and 2018. This gave
rise to what many investors perceived as a “Fed put,”
implying the Fed would step in to rescue asset prices
whenever they came under significant pressure.
On the other hand, when inflation has historically
been higher and more volatile—a “high-inflation
regime”—the Fed often faced more difficult decisions.
Maintaining price stability can at times come into
conflict with trying to prop up the economy or improve
financial conditions during volatile market episodes.
•
High-inflation regimes—particularly, the period from
the late 1960s through the early 1980s—have proven
more challenging for broad asset returns. During
these periods, investors benefited from owning
real assets, such as commodities, and other more
inflation-resistant asset categories.
•
During high-inflation regimes, fluctuations in
the business cycle still affected relative asset
performance over shorter and more medium-
term horizons. But as the cycle matured and the
Fed moved to tighten policy, the outlook for bond
yields, monetary policy, and stock-bond correlations
become more uncertain—similar to the dynamic
troubling the markets so far in 2022.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2017
2013
2015
2019
2021
2022
Federal F unds R ate
2%
T ar get I n
fl
at ion
Co
re I n
fl
at ion ( Year -o ver-Y ear )
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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4
The odds of a high secular inflation regime have significantly
increased
Over the past several years, our research on long-term trends has identified
growing inflation risks over a secular time horizon. The benign global
backdrop that contributed to disinflationary trends in recent decades—such
as rising globalization and geopolitical stability—has come under pressure.
Extraordinarily easy monetary policies, combined with fiscal accommodation
and rising debt, have resulted in a more inflationary policy mix.
Our secular inflation framework incorporates four thematic drivers of
long-term inflation as shown in the graphic to the right. The secular
inflation forecasts have steadily increased over the past five years, with
the 20-year forecast moving from benign levels in the 1
–
2% range to
between 2.5% and 3% today. Of the many factors that form our view
on higher secular inflation, the most dramatic have been declining
productivity and peak globalization.
Developed market productivity has been anemic in recent decades,
which would typically lead to higher inflation. However, these trends have
been offset by productivity gains elsewhere—most notably in China.
The disinflationary impulse from greater productivity gains in China was
exported throughout the world via increasing trade links and global supply
chains. Exhibit 3 indicates that this disinflationary force out of China has
been hindered by stalling trade growth and weakening productivity,
leading to a greater likelihood that weak developed market productivity
may ultimately lead to higher long-run inflation.
EXHIBIT 3:
China’s stalling globalization trend and weakening productivity
remove a dominating disinflationary trend over the last two decades.
China Global Trade and Productivity
Source: General Administration of Customs of the People’s Republic of China (GACC), Haver Analytics,
Bloomberg Finance L.P., Fidelity Investments (AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
AART Secular Inflation Framework
SECULAR
INFLATION
MACRO FACTORS
Trend
Inflation Expectations
Productivity
Demographics
According to our proprietary
macroeconomic inflation model,
we believe the odds have
increased that the world has
already transitioned to a longer-
term, high-inflation regime.
0%
5%
10%
15%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2 011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
China Exports/World GDP
China Labor Productivity
Year- over-Year
Ratio
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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5
How does a high-inflation regime affect the maturing business cycle?
While the cycle is still in expansion and recession risk is moderate, inflation may
dominate the decelerating growth outlook.
•
During low inflation regimes, hits to growth—such as falling Purchasing Managers’
Indices, an indicator of economic health in manufacturing and services—tend to
push bond yields lower.
•
However, during prolonged high-inflation periods, such as the 1970s and early
1980s, inflation pressures pushed up bond yields even when growth decelerated.
•
Amid low secular inflation, bond yields tend to peak in the late cycle and decline
into recession (Exhibit 4). The Fed generally finishes its rate hiking during late cycle
and then begins cutting rates and easing policy during recession.
•
However, during the high-inflation 1970s and early 1980s, the Fed continued to
raise policy rates into recession in efforts to ease stubbornly high rates of inflation.
In such high-inflation regimes historically, bond yields tended to continue to rise
into recession and exhibit greater volatility.
EXHIBIT 4:
The state of the inflation regime can affect bond market volatility and the timing of peak yields.
Median Change in 10-Year Treasury Yields during Cycle-Phase Transitions, 1950–2020
Low-Inflation Regimes
Represents the median of 12-month changes in rates from the 6 months before to the 6 months after the phase transition. Real yields and inflation
expectations calculated based on AART proprietary methodology. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Fidelity Investments (AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
High-Inflation Regimes
–1
50
–1
00
–5
0
0
50
100
150
200
Re
cess ion
to Early
Ear
ly to Mi
d
Mi
d to Lat
e
Late to
Recession
Re
al Yields
Inflation Expectations
Nominal Yield
Basis points
–1
50
–1
00
–5
0
0
50
100
150
200
Re
al Yields
Inflation Expectations
Nominal Yield
Basis points
Re
cess ion
to Early
Ear
ly to Mi
d
Mi
d to Lat
e
Late to
Recession
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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6
When the odds of a recession have increased historically, the cyclical growth outlook
has dominated the longer-term inflation outlook.
•
Many of the most reliable factors tend to signal rising recession risk regardless of
the inflation regime. This includes the yield curve, which on average has inverted
about one year before recession, historically.
Historical asset performance during a maturing cycle with high inflation can be
summarized as follows:
•
During the late-cycle expansion, a high-inflation environment may warrant
slightly higher exposure to commodities than the typical business cycle playbook
suggests. Historically, when the economy remains in late-cycle expansion during
high inflation, equities and commodities, in particular, tend to protect against
inflation better than bonds. As a result, equities and commodities outperformed
bonds during the late cycle to a greater degree in high-inflation regimes than in
low-inflation ones (Exhibit 5).
•
Once the recession risk becomes dominant, equities and commodities tend to
underperform fixed income in both high- and low-inflation regimes. As a result,
tilting a portfolio toward more defensive exposures during recession tended to
provide diversification benefits regardless of the inflation environment.
EXHIBIT 5:
A high-inflation environment tends to favor commodities during late cycle, though bonds outperform in
recession in both high- and low-inflation regimes.
Historical Real Asset Returns by Cycle Phase
Low-Inflation Regimes
Fidelity proprietary analysis using historical index returns. Domestic Equity—Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index; Commodities—Bloomberg Commodity
Total Return Index; Investment-Grade (IG) Bonds—Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
High-Inflation Regimes
–1
5%
–1
0%
–5
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
U.S. Equities
Commodities
Investment-Grade Bonds
Average Real Return
Early
Mi
d
Lat
e
Recession
25%
–20%
–1
0%
–5
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
U.S. Equities
Commodities
Investment-Grade Bonds
Average Real Return
Early
Mi
d
Lat
e
Recession
30%
25%
–15%
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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7
AART Cyclical Inflation Framework
Current outlook: Peak cyclical inflation and maturing cycle
Our nearer-term, cyclical inflation forecast projects inflation to decline
over the next 12 months from its current four-decade high. This is partly
due to the “base effects” of being compared to much higher inflation over
the past year, but also due to lower inflationary pressures in some areas.
Nevertheless, while we might have already reached “peak inflation” for
this cycle, there is a reasonable chance that more persistent pressures
may keep inflation well above the Fed’s 2% target for some time to come.
From a micro approach, price pressures in housing and food are likely to
remain persistent, even if they decline from their current elevated levels.
Exhibit 6 shows the Zillow Home Value Index and the Producer Price
Index (PPI) for food manufacturing, which have historically been good
predictors of future inflation in housing and food, respectively. While we
believe both series appear to be topping out—consistent with our thesis
of “peak inflation”—they are both at multidecade highs and unlikely to
decline quickly enough to bring inflation down rapidly.
From a macro perspective, we are seeing some diminution of inflationary
pressures in both demand and supply. The state of the labor market and
wage growth are the most important inputs into the “demand-pull” cause
of inflation.
While the tightness of the labor market has been well documented, the
fact that wage gains aren’t keeping pace with inflation (Exhibit 7) leaves
EXHIBIT 6:
The pace of price increases in housing and food
may be peaking.
Home and Food Price Growth
Source: Zillow, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity
Investments (AART), as of Apr. 30, 2022.
CYCLICAL
INFLATION
MICRO FACTORS
Housing
Food & Beverage
Transportation
Medical
Education
MACRO FACTORS
Trend
Inflation Expectations
Business Cycle
Government
Aggregate Supply
Aggregate Demand
EXHIBIT 7:
The inflationary impact of supply chains and
real wage growth has started to trend lower.
Supply Chains and Wage Growth
The Supply Chain Misery Index is a proprietary estimate of supply chain
conditions and uses a combination of the Institute for Supply Management
Supplier Deliveries, Backlog of Orders, and Prices Paid indices. Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics, Haver Analytics, Fidelity Investments (AART), as
of Apr. 30, 2022.
–
15%
–
10%
–5
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Year-over-Year
25%
2000
2001
2002
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2020
2021
Zillow H ome Value
Index
PPI F ood M
an
ufac
turing
–2
–1
0
1
2
3
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Supply Chain Misery Index
Real Average Hourly Earnings Index
8.5
9.0
9.5
11.0
11.5
12.0
10.0
10.5
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
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8
purchasing power near its pre-pandemic levels and
should lead to reduced demand going forward.
On the supply side, we are seeing some easing of
snarled supply chains and high input costs, but the
Supply Chain Misery Index demonstrates that the
damage done to supply chains via the pandemic and
geopolitics is far from being healed (Exhibit 7).
Our current outlook for the economy is that the U.S.
cycle is maturing and has entered late cycle, but near-
term recession risks remain moderate (Exhibit 8).
•
While some parts of the yield curves (i.e., the
10-Year/2-Year) have already inverted, our preferred
recession signal is the 10-year less 3-month yield
spread, which remains positively sloped. This is
because the Fed typically needs to tighten policy
more than it currently has before entering recession.
•
Interest rates have less upside after the big move
in bond yields year to date, but upside risk remains
as recession risk remains moderate and inflation
pressures remain high. This backdrop suggests
bond yields may continue to rise, even as growth
decelerates amid a maturing cycle.
•
A soft landing, prolonged late-cycle scenario may be
more challenging to sustain if inflation stays persistently
above the Fed’s target. Compared to the past few
monetary tightening cycles, high inflation would make
it more difficult for the Fed to counter a significant
deterioration in economic or financial conditions.
•
If the economy eventually enters recession, the
level of inflation will remain important. In past high-
inflation regimes, it was challenging for the Fed to
ease aggressively to counter economic weakness.
EXHIBIT 8:
Business cycles around the world, including in the United States, continue to mature as central banks tighten
policy to combat inflation.
Business Cycle Framework
The diagram above is a hypothetical illustration of the business cycle, the pattern of cyclical fluctuations in an economy over a few years that can influence asset
returns over an intermediate-term horizon. There is not always a chronological, linear progression among the phases of the business cycle, and there have been
cycles when the economy has skipped a phase or retraced an earlier one. * A growth recession is a significant decline in activity relative to a country’s long-term
economic potential. We use the “growth cycle” definition for most developing economies, such as China, because they tend to exhibit strong trend performance
driven by rapid factor accumulation and increases in productivity, and the deviation from the trend tends to matter most for asset returns. We use the classic
definition of recession, involving an outright contraction in economic activity, for developed economies. Source: Fidelity Investments (AART), as of June 23, 2022.
• Activi ty rebounds (GDP, IP,
emplo
yment, incomes)
• Credit begins to grow
• Pro
fi
t s grow ra pid
ly
• Policy still stimulative
• Inventories low; sales improve
• Growth peak
ing
• Credit growth strong
• Pro
fi
t growth peaks
• Policy neutra
l
• Inventories, sales grow;
equil
ibrium
reached
• Growth modera ting
• Credit tightens
• Earn ings under pressure
• Policy contra ctionar
y
• Inventories grow; sales
growth fa lls
• Falling activ ity
• Credit dries
up
• Pro
fi
t s decline
• Policy eases
• Inventories, sales fa ll
LA
TE
RE
CESSION
EARL
Y
MID
Cy
cle Phases
Relativ
e P
erf
orman
ce of
Eco
nomicall
y Sensitiv
e Assets
+
Eco
nomic Gr
owth
–
U.S., Canada
China*
Brazil, Mexico
Australia, Japan, Korea, India
UK, Eurozone
How a Higher Secular Inflation Backdrop May Make This Business Cycle Different
|
9
Investment implications
The good news for investors is that the 2022 downturn
in both stocks and bond prices implies that some of
the challenging dynamics highlighted above have been
priced into the markets.
•
Lower stock and bond valuations are a recognition of
higher interest rates and inflation expectations.
•
With the likelihood that inflation rates will decline
in the coming months, there is a possibility that
investors will perceive a better balance between
tighter monetary policy and inflation relative to the
beginning of the year.
However, if we have entered a high secular inflation
regime, the likely near-term peak in inflation doesn’t
necessarily mean it’s back to “business as usual”
compared to recent cycles when inflation has been low.
•
More persistent and more volatile inflation implies
that the Fed faces a more difficult challenge in
striking the right monetary balance for both growth
and inflation.
•
In this environment, uncertainty about the outlooks
for inflation and Fed policy is likely to be high,
implying the potential for elevated market volatility
will likely persist.
From an asset allocation standpoint, we should
consider nearer-term business-cycle dynamics within
the context of the potentially longer-term, higher-
inflation backdrop.
•
While U.S. recession risks remain moderate,
maintaining exposure to stocks and commodities can
benefit in an environment of economic expansion
and persistent inflation risks.
•
If the probability of recession increases substantially,
tilting a portfolio toward bonds and other more
defensive assets may help reduce portfolio volatility.
•
A focus on diversification across a variety of metrics,
including geography and inflation resistance, may
enhance a portfolio’s resilience to better weather a
wide range of potential scenarios over the long term.
Endnote
1
Stocks—Dow Jones Total Stock Market Total Return Index; Bonds—Bloomberg Intermediate
Treasury Total Return Index. Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Fidelity Investments (AART), as of
Dec. 31, 2020.
Index definitions
Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index
is a broad-based, market value-weighted benchmark that
measures the performance of the investment-grade, U.S. dollar-denominated, fixed-rate taxable
bond market.
Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index
measures the performance of the commodities
market. It consists of exchange traded futures contracts on physical commodities that are
weighted to account for the economic significance and market liquidity of each commodity.
Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market Index
SM
is a full market capitalization-weighted index of all
equity securities of U.S.-headquartered companies with readily available price data.
Information provided in this document is for informational and educational purposes only. To the
extent any investment information in this material is deemed to be a recommendation, it is not
meant to be impartial investment advice or advice in a fiduciary capacity and is not intended to be
used as a primary basis for you or your client’s investment decisions. Fidelity and its representatives
may have a conflict of interest in the products or services mentioned in this material because they
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Information presented herein is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and is not a
recommendation or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Views expressed are as
of June 2022, based on the informa
tion available at that time, and may change based on market
and other conditions. Unless otherwise noted, the opinions provided are those of the author and
not necessarily those of Fidelity Investments or its affiliates. Fidelity does not assume any duty to
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Investment decisions should be based on an individual’s own goals, time horizon, and tolerance
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Investing involves risk, including risk of loss.
Stock markets, especially non-U.S. markets, are volatile and can decline significantly in response
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Although bonds generally present less short-term risk and volatility than stocks, bonds do contain
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Additionally, bonds and short-term investments entail greater inflation risk—or the risk that the
return of an investment will not keep up with increases in the prices of goods and services—than
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decrease.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Diversification and asset allocation do not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss.
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© 2022 FMR LLC. All rights reserved.
103398 3.1.0
Authors
Collin Crownover, PhD
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
Cait Dourney, CFA
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
Dirk Hofschire, CFA
Senior Vice President
Asset Allocation Research
Jake Weinstein, CFA
Research Analyst
Asset Allocation Research
The Asset Allocation Research Team (AART)
conducts economic, fundamental, and
quantitative research to develop asset allocation
recommendations for Fidelity’s portfolio
managers and investment teams. AART is
responsible for analyzing and synthesizing
investment perspectives across Fidelity’s Asset
Management unit to generate insights on
macroeconomic and financial market trends and
their implications for asset allocation.
Fidelity Thought Leadership Vice President Christie
Myers provided editorial direction for this article.
1.9905869.100
0622
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