Global Economic Outlook
The views expressed are those of the authors at the time of writing. Other teams may hold different views and make different investment decisions. The value of your investment may become worth more or less than at the time of original investment. While any third-party data used is considered reliable, its accuracy is not guaranteed. For professional, institutional, or accredited investors only.
Our experts believe the global economic cycle is slowing and that the slowdown may gather momentum. Despite signs of falling inflation, we don’t think policy is tight enough to achieve sustainable target inflation levels. Yet, central banks seem to have little appetite to raise rates further, because they fear recession more than above-target inflation. Different choices by policymakers against these trade-offs could lead countries down diverging growth paths, creating opportunities for active managers. In this collection, we explore opportunities and risks created by intensifying macro regime change and continued geopolitical uncertainty; we dive into macro expectations for the US; we reflect on the macro implications of two megatrends that could drive results for many years to come: generative AI and the energy transition; and we offer our near-, medium-, and long-term ideas on commodities.
