Robeco
January 26, 2021
A global leader in sustainable and quantitative investing.

China outlook 2021: Starting off the year on the right foot

Jie Lu | Head of Investments China

Despite the havoc caused by Covid-19, China started off 2021 on a much stronger footing than 2020. As the economic recovery gathers momentum and political tensions with the US ease a little, we remain constructive for the months to come.

Speed read

  • Economic growth expected to continue at solid pace in 2021
  • Robust domestic demand and industrial recovery set to drive growth
  • Long-term growth prospects remain intact, quality growth should prevail

After a roller-coaster but still positive year in 2020, the Chinese economy is expected to continue to grow at a solid pace in 2021, on the back of the ongoing domestic recovery and an upcoming global rebound after the Covid-19 shock of March and April 2020. After being the first country to be hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, China managed to bring the contagion under control relatively rapidly and has been leading the recovery pack since the beginning of the second quarter of 2020.

"In 2021, Chinese growth will be supported by a favorable mix of consumption and industrial recovery"

In 2021, Chinese growth will be supported by a favorable mix of consumption and industrial recovery. Business confidence indicators for the manufacturing sectors have rebounded sharply from the lows seen early in 2020. Moreover, production prices have also been showing signs of stabilization, after months of downward pressure, driving industrial corporate profits back into growth territory.

Meanwhile, the household savings rate for the first nine months of 2020 stood at a record high level of 37% (versus 32% for the same period of 2019 and 2018) — the normalization of the savings rate after the pandemic bodes well for domestic demand. The rise of ecommerce and a consumption reshoring phenomenon, corresponding to a gradual reduction of Chinese overseas spending in items such as travel, studies, or luxury goods, to the advantage of the domestic market, should further boost the consumption recovery.

Figure 1: Gradual return to normal activity

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, December 2020.

After an initial slowdown during the stricter lockdown period of early 2020, online retail sales growth accelerated rapidly and is now back to normal levels seen before the pandemic, around 15%. Moreover, many indicators, such as the box office sales and hotel room occupancy rates, suggest activities are almost back at their pre-crisis levels, after the dramatic collapse seen in February 2020 and subsequently very strong rebound in the second and third quarters.

Exports are also likely to be a tailwind next year, as other countries that have been hit harder by the pandemic in 2020 will continue to recover. Helped by the country’s prompt turnaround, China’s exports have been gaining market share in 2020, despite the renminbi’s strength. As Covid-19 vaccines become available throughout 2021 and developed economies continue grow, total demand for Chinese exports should remain strong, although China may lose some shares gained in 2020.

Figure 2: Chinese exports boosted by Covid-19

Source: Morgan Stanley research

As the economic situation continues to improve, Chinese authorities should be able to wind down exceptional stimulus measures taken in 2020 to fight the crisis triggered by the pandemic. The fiscal deficit is expected to shrink from an estimated 15.4% in 2020 to 12% in 2021. Meanwhile, credit growth is expected to slow down as the economic recovery continues to mature and monetary policy becomes less supportive. Some marginal tightening could also be on the cards.

Long-lasting tensions with the US
Although Joe Biden’s election as US president may mean some relief for China-US relations, this outcome is unlikely to soothe the long-term rivalry between both countries. A Biden presidency would likely mean a lower risk of trade war escalation, as Biden will likely shift to a more comprehensive, predictable and consistent approach. Yet, competition will remain intense and Biden may be able to federate traditional western allies in his bid to contain China.

"A Biden presidency would likely mean a lower risk of trade war escalation. Yet, competition will remain intense"

China and the US will need to revisit the trade deal, but we don’t expect that any time soon. For one, targets agreed in the phase 1 deal remain elusive, partly due to the Covid-19 crisis. Since the second quarter of 2020, China has accelerated purchases of manufactured and agricultural goods, as well as energy, from the US. Yet these amounted to only 40% of the 2020 target for the January-September period. This may not lead to a tariff rollback, but it could delay talks of future deals.

From a longer-term perspective, Biden’s pledges in terms of sustainability may resonate better with Chinese policymakers, although his ambitions may ultimately be curtailed by budget constraints. On the other hand, however, the technology rivalry should remain. Even though a Biden administration may prove more lenient regarding technology restrictions to non-critical segments, restrictions will be maintained, underscoring China’s need to become more self-reliant going forward.

In a push to reduce its dependency on the US regarding trade and technology, China recently joined the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the world’s largest free trade bloc. This should help China strengthen its position in Asia. The RCEP gathers over a dozen countries from North and Southeast Asia, as well Australia and New Zealand. The bloc represents roughly 30% of the global population, 30% of global GDP and 28% of global trade.

The aim for China is to get some relief from escalating tensions with the US, by seeking other partners, such as Japan and South Korea. This is especially important for the highly critical components, in particular for the semiconductor industry, that China will need to source abroad if it wants to achieve technological independence. By entering the RCEP, China is sending a strong signal. This is actually the first time Japan, South Korea and China have acceded to the same trade agreement.

Outlook
OutlookOutlook
Outlook
For professional investors
For professional investorsFor professional investors
For professional investors
January 2021
Jie Lu
Head of Investments, China
Despite the economic havoc caused by the Covid
Despite the economic havoc caused by the CovidDespite the economic havoc caused by the Covid
Despite the economic havoc caused by the Covid-
--
-19
19 19
19
pandemic last year, China started off 2021 on a muc
h
pandemic last year, China started off 2021 on a muc
h
pandemic last year, China started off 2021 on a muc
h
pandemic last year, China started off 2021 on a muc
h
stronger footing than 2020. As the economic recover
y
stronger footing than 2020. As the economic recover
y
stronger footing than 2020. As the economic recover
y
stronger footing than 2020. As the economic recover
y
gathers momentum and political
gathers momentum and political gathers momentum and political
gathers momentum and political tensions with the US
tensions with the US tensions with the US
tensions with the US
ease a little, we remain constructive for the month
s to
ease a little, we remain constructive for the month
s to
ease a little, we remain constructive for the month
s to
ease a little, we remain constructive for the month
s to
come. Meanwhile, the country’s longer
come. Meanwhile, the country’s longercome. Meanwhile, the country’s longer
come. Meanwhile, the country’s longer-
--
-term growth
term growth term growth
term growth
potential remains supported by a number of secular
potential remains supported by a number of secular potential remains supported by a number of secular
potential remains supported by a number of secular
trends, including the country’s gradual industrial
trends, including the country’s gradual industrial trends, including the country’s gradual industrial
trends, including the country’s gradual industrial
upgrade or its ongoing urba
upgrade or its ongoing urbaupgrade or its ongoing urba
upgrade or its ongoing urbanization
nizationnization
nization.
..
.
The 2021 macroeconomic environment
After a roller-coaster but still positive year in 2
020, the
Chinese economy is expected to continue to grow at
a solid
pace in 2021, on the back of the ongoing domestic r
ecovery
and an upcoming global rebound after the Covid-19 s
hock
of March and April 2020. After being the first coun
try to be
hit by the Covid-19 pandemic, China managed to brin
g the
contagion under control relatively rapidly and has
been
leading the recovery pack since the beginning of th
e second
quarter of 2020.
Consumption and industrial recovery
Consumption and industrial recoveryConsumption and industrial recovery
Consumption and industrial recovery
In 2021, Chinese growth will be supported by a favo
rable
mix of consumption and industrial recovery. Busines
s
confidence indicators for the manufacturing sectors
have
rebounded sharply from the lows seen early in 2020.
Fundamental Equities
China outlook 2021:
Starting off the year on
the right foot
Economic growth expected to continue at solid pace
in 2021
Robust domestic demand and industrial recovery set
to drive growth
Long-term growth prospects remain intact, quality g
rowth should prevail
2 | China outlook 2021 - Starting off the year on
the right foot January 2021
Moreover, production prices have also been showing
signs
of stabilization, after months of downward pressure
, driving
industrial corporate profits back into growth terri
tory.
Meanwhile, the household savings rate for the first
nine
months of 2020 stood at a record high level of 37%
(versus
32% for the same period of 2019 and 2018) — the
normalization of the savings rate after the pandemi
c bodes
well for domestic demand.
1
The rise of ecommerce and a
consumption reshoring phenomenon, corresponding to
a
gradual reduction of Chinese overseas spending in i
tems
such as travel, studies, or luxury goods, to the ad
vantage of
the domestic market, should further boost the consu
mption
recovery.
Figure 1 |
Gradual return to normal activity
Source: Morgan Stanley Research, November 2020.
‘Many indicators, such as the number of domestic
flights and hotel room occupancy rates suggest
activity are almost back at their pre-crisis levels
After an initial slowdown during the stricter lockd
own
period of early 2020, online retail sales growth ac
celerated
rapidly and is now back to normal levels seen befor
e the
1
Source: UBS Research, October 2020.
2
Source: UBS Research, October 2020.
pandemic, around 15%.
2
Moreover, many indicators, such
as the number of domestic flights and hotel room
occupancy rates, suggest activities are almost back
at their
pre-crisis levels, after the dramatic collapse seen
in February
2020 and subsequently very strong rebound in the se
cond
and third quarters.
A boost from exports
A boost from exportsA boost from exports
A boost from exports
Exports are also likely to be a tailwind next year,
as other
countries that have been hit harder by the pandemic
in
2020 will continue to recover. Helped by the countr
y’s
prompt turnaround, China’s exports have been gainin
g
market share in 2020, despite the renminbi’s streng
th. As
Covid-19 vaccines become available throughout 2021
and
developed economies continue grow, total demand for
Chinese exports should remain strong, although Chin
a may
lose some shares gained in 2020.
Figure 2 |
Chinese exports boosted by Covid-19
Source: Morgan Stanley research
As the economic situation continues to improve, Chi
nese
authorities should be able to wind down exceptional
stimulus measures taken in 2020 to fight the crisis
triggered by the pandemic. The fiscal deficit is ex
pected to
shrink from an estimated 15.4% in 2020 to 12% in 20
21.
3
Meanwhile, credit growth is expected to slow down a
s the
economic recovery continues to mature and monetary
policy becomes less supportive. Some marginal tight
ening
could also be on the cards.
Long
LongLong
Long-
--
-lasting tensions with the US
lasting tensions with the USlasting tensions with the US
lasting tensions with the US
Although Joe Biden’s election as US president may m
ean
some relief for China-US relations, this outcome is
unlikely
to soothe the long-term rivalry between both countr
ies. A
Biden presidency would likely mean a lower risk of
trade
3
Source: Morgan Stanley, November 2020.
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
Jan-19
Apr-19
Jul-19
Oct-19
Jan-20
Apr-20
Jul-20
Oct-20
YoY%
Auto
Sales
Dome
stic
Flights
Ceme
nt
Shipm
ent
Subwa
y
Passe
nger
Volum
e
Hotel
Occup
ancy
Box
3 | China outlook 2021 - Starting off the year on
the right foot January 2021
war escalation, as Biden will likely shift to a mor
e
comprehensive, predictable and consistent approach.
Yet,
competition will remain intense and Biden may be ab
le to
federate traditional western allies in his bid to c
ontain
China.
China and the US will need to revisit the trade dea
l, but we
don’t expect that any time soon. For one, targets a
greed in
the phase 1 deal remain elusive, partly due to the
Covid-19
crisis. Since the second quarter of 2020, China has
accelerated purchases of manufactured and agricultu
ral
goods, as well as energy, from the US. Yet these am
ounted
to only 40% of the 2020 target for the January-Sept
ember
period.
4
This may not lead to a tariff rollback, but it cou
ld
delay talks of future deals.
‘Even though a Biden administration may prove
more lenient regarding technology restrictions to
non-critical segments, restrictions will remain’
From a longer-term perspective, Biden’s pledges in
terms of
sustainability may resonate better with Chinese
policymakers, although his ambitions may ultimately
be
curtailed by budget constraints. On the other hand,
however, the technology rivalry should remain. Even
though a Biden administration may prove more lenien
t
regarding technology restrictions to non-critical s
egments,
restrictions will be maintained, underscoring China
’s need
to become more self-reliant going forward.
Joining the RCEP trading bloc
Joining the RCEP trading blocJoining the RCEP trading bloc
Joining the RCEP trading bloc
In a push to reduce its dependency on the US regard
ing
trade and technology, China recently joined the Reg
ional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the worl
d’s
largest free trade bloc. This should help China str
engthen its
position in Asia. The RCEP gathers over a dozen cou
ntries
from North and Southeast Asia, as well Australia an
d New
Zealand. The bloc represents roughly 30% of the glo
bal
population, 30% of global GDP and 28% of global tra
de.
The aim for China is to get some relief from escala
ting
tensions with the US, by seeking other partners, su
ch as
Japan and South Korea. This is especially important
for the
highly critical components, in particular for the
semiconductor industry, that China will need to sou
rce
abroad if it wants to achieve technological indepen
dence.
By entering the RCEP, China is sending a strong sig
nal. This
is actually the first time Japan, South Korea and C
hina have
acceded to the same trade agreement.
4
Source: CEIC, USTR, US Census, UBS Research, Novem
ber 2020.
Longer-term drivers of growth
Beyond 2021, China’s 14th Five-Year Plan for the 20
20-
2025 period focuses on quality of growth. The plan
does
not stipulate specific annual growth targets, but i
t has
explicitly made two broad goals: achieving high inc
ome
status by 2025 and doubling the size of the Chinese
economy by 2035.
As mentioned in the previous section, China has emb
arked
on a journey towards technological self-sufficiency
, in
particular regarding semiconductors. But China’s am
bitions
go well beyond this technological race with other d
ominant
powers. The next five-year plan outlines a number o
f other
critical areas for future growth and development, i
ncluding
the country’s industrial upgrade, a broad-based mov
e
towards a more sustainable economy and the opening
up
of Chinese financial markets to foreign investors.
Industrial upgrade
Industrial upgradeIndustrial upgrade
Industrial upgrade
China already has the largest manufacturing base in
the
world and now wants to move up the global value cha
in,
which should be supported by its technological
development efforts. In terms of R&D spending, Chin
a
continues to catch up with the US. Chinese R&D spen
ding is
expected to grow from 2% of GDP to 3% of GDP over t
he
next five years.
5
These would be levels similar to those also
seen in a number of European countries, such as Ger
many
or Switzerland.
Figure 3 |
2020 R&D spending in selected countries
Source: R&D World, as of March 2020
Green economy
Green economyGreen economy
Green economy
Another important pillar for future growth is the c
ountry’s
green economy push. China had pledged to become car
bon
neutral by 2060. While it is not entirely clear how
China will
achieve this, one crucial element will likely be a
profound
5
Source: R&D World, March 2020.
4 | China outlook 2021 - Starting off the year on
the right foot January 2021
shift in the country’s energy mix. This would imply
significant support for the renewable energy indust
ry going
forward, in areas such as solar and wind energy pro
duction
as well as the electric vehicle (EV) supply chain.
For instance, not only does China exhibit the world
’s largest
EV fleet, with over half of all EVs sold globally i
n 2019 being
sold in the country, but it also has very strong am
bitions in
this area for the coming years to reduce exhaust em
issions.
Beijing actually wants 25% of all car sales in the
country to
be EVs by 2025, up from roughly 5% in 2019. As a re
sult,
Chinese EV sales are expected to experience strong
double-
digit growth in the coming years, thus lifting the
entire EV
supply chain.
Urbanization
UrbanizationUrbanization
Urbanization
The urbanization rate in China currently stands at
close to
60%, up from 18% in 1978, and still has room to go,
to
reach 70% by 2035. This is due to the rise of the s
ervices
sector since the 1980s. This phenomenon is expected
to be
one of the major drivers of growth, as this means b
oth
higher spending power and also increasing demand fo
r
public infrastructure – such as transport, but also
education
and healthcare.
Journey to the west
Journey to the westJourney to the west
Journey to the west
China’s regional development strategy will focus on
four city
clusters. Three of them already well developed: Bei
jing
Tianjin Hebei, Yangtze River delta and the Guangdon
g
Greater Bay Area. The fourth one is the Chengdu-Cho
ngqing
economic circle, which will be the gateway for the
development of the country’s western region, in an
effort to
close the development gap between the country’s ric
her
eastern provinces and the generally less developed
western
ones.
Opening up
Opening up Opening up
Opening up
The ongoing gradual opening up of financial markets
is also
expected to be a growth catalyst. Over the past fiv
e years
the amount of Chinese domestic bonds and equities o
wned
by foreign investors has grown tremendously, on the
back
of a number of key financial reforms, including bot
h the
stock and bond connects as well the inclusion of Ch
inese A-
shares in the emerging markets category by index pr
ovider
MSCI.
‘In case of the full inclusion of A-shares, Chinese
equities could represent over 50% of the entire
EM universe’
We expect these trends will continue because China
is still
largely underrated and clearly “under-owned” by for
eign
investors. We believe that further inclusion of A-s
hares by
MSCI should also boost this trend. Over the past co
uple of
years, MSCI has voiced concerns over further inclus
ion,
indicating key reforms were still needed to conside
r the
introduction of additional A-shares in the index. B
ut the
pace of reforms has accelerated.
For instance, this includes new rules on Qualified
Foreign
Institutional Investors (QFII) and RMB QFII, as wel
l as the
ChiNext market reform to further allow ADRs and red
chips
to come back home. Moreover, China is ready to laun
ch A-
share derivatives in Hong Kong. Finally, the Master
SPSA
(Special Segregated) Service will soon be installed
for Stock
Connect Northbound trading. Ultimately, in the case
of the
full inclusion of A-shares, Chinese equities could
represent
over 50% of the entire EM universe.
Figure 4 |
MSCI EM weights at the end of October 2020
and with A-shares full inclusion
Source: FactSet, MSCI, RIMES, Morgan Stanley Resear
ch. As of
end-October 2020.
5 | China outlook 2021 - Starting off the year on
the right foot January 2021
Outlook for Markets
Beyond China’s positive macroeconomic prospects, ou
r
outlook for Chinese equities, including A-shares, r
emains
constructive for 2021, helped by a number of other
supporting factors. In addition, Chinese domestic e
quity
markets are expected to continue to attract foreign
inflows.
The country’s market reforms and opening up process
are
expected to accelerate, driving further inclusion o
f A-shares
in emerging market indices by MSCI.
‘Our five-factor analysis framework points to a
constructive 2021 outlook for both domestically-
listed A-shares and offshore Chinese equities’
Table 1 |
The Robeco five-factor framework for A-shares
Factors
FactorsFactors
Factors
Rating
RatingRating
Rating
Comments
CommentsComments
Comments
Macro
MacroMacro
Macro
+1
14th five
-
year plan focus
e
d
on
quality of growth
China’s economic growth to
continue on its recovery trajectory,
while policies start normalizing
Gradual global economic rebound
on the hope of vaccines
Moderating geopolitical risks, but
long-term US-China tensions
remain
Earning
Earning Earning
Earning
revisions
revisionsrevisions
revisions
+1
Earnings revisions are stabilizing
and recovering
Valuation
ValuationValuation
Valuation
0
Market is attractive relatively
Sentiment
SentimentSentiment
Sentiment
0
Macro liquidity could be peaking,
while foreign inflow and domestic
equity allocation could be
supportive
Technical
TechnicalTechnical
Technical
+1
Positive and among the better ones
globally
Outlook
OutlookOutlook
Outlook
+3
Constructive
Source: Robeco, January 2021.
Our five-factor analysis framework points to a cons
tructive
2021 outlook for both domestically-listed A-shares
and
offshore Chinese equities. The main differences bet
ween
both types of equities will have to do with valuati
on and
sentiment. While valuations remain relatively attra
ctive for
A-shares, they appear to be more stretched for offs
hore
equites, where they currently stand above their his
torical
average.
Meanwhile, the sentiment factor for A-shares could
suffer
from peaking monetary support, as the economic reco
very
continues to mature and monetary stimulus measures
get
reduced gradually. The consequences of this expecte
d policy
normalization should be less visible in offshore ma
rkets,
where global and southbound inflows should continue
to
support investors’ sentiment despite the lower fisc
al and
monetary support.
Table 2 |
The Robeco five-factor framework for offshore
Chinese equities
Factors
FactorsFactors
Factors
Rating
RatingRating
Rating
Comments
CommentsComments
Comments
Macro
+1
14th
five
-
year plan focuse
d
on quality
of growth
China’s economic growth to continue
on its recovery trajectory, while
policies start normalizing
Gradual global economic rebound on
the hope of vaccines
Moderating geopolitical risks, but
long-term US-China tensions remain
Earning
revisions
+1
Earnings revisions are stabilizing and
recovering
Valuation
-1
Above historical average, but relative
valuation is still reasonable
Sentiment
+1
Global and southbound inflow could
be supportive
Technical
+1
Positive and among the better ones
globally
Outlook
+3
Constructive
Source: Robeco, January 2021.
Conclusion
For 2021, we maintain our constructive stance on Ch
inese
equity markets. China’s economic recovery remains o
n
track, mostly driven by a rebound in manufacturing
and
domestic consumption. Vaccination campaigns across
the
world should also help the global demand recovery w
hich
will benefit China’s export sector further. Meanwhi
le,
Biden’s presidency may ease tensions a bit with the
US in
the short term, although it is unlikely to change t
he long-
term rivalry between both superpowers.
Helped by the rapid consumption recovery and an eve
n
faster and stronger industrial rebound, China’s
macroeconomic policies will likely normalize in 202
1. This
should alleviate rising concerns regarding the coun
try’s high
6 | China outlook 2021 - Starting off the year on
the right foot January 2021
level of debt. However, we don’t expect Chinese aut
horities
to over-tighten their fiscal and monetary stance, a
nd risk
jeopardizing the recovery or triggering systematic
risks in
the country’s financial system.
In the long run, we are optimistic on China’s prosp
ects.
Although economic growth numbers will inevitability
continue to moderate over the years, this slowdown
will be
largely compensated by higher-quality growth. Chine
se
policymakers insist on the importance of innovation
and will
continue to push for further market reform. Among t
he top
priorities for the coming years, strong emphasis wi
ll be put
on technological independence as a “strategic pilla
r” to
future development.
In the meantime, Chinese authorities will continue
to
encourage domestic industries to move up the global
value
chain, and build advanced manufacturing industry cl
usters.
China’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060
is also
set to boost the share of non-fossil energy in the
country’s
energy mix. Under China’s dual circulation developm
ent
strategy, supporting domestic consumption and furth
er
opening up capital markets will continue to guide t
he
country’s strategic course.
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