Capital Market Assumptions: 2025 Edition

Explore the investment themes likely to drive global markets over the next 10 years and our detailed return forecasts across stocks, bonds, real assets and alternatives.

Overview

We expect AI, the energy transition and persistent globalization to impact markets long-term.

Over the next 10 years, we believe U.S. equities will continue to outperform developed markets outside the U.S., and emerging market stocks should provide diversification. While cash returns may decline on central bank rate cuts, strong fundamentals likely will support high yield returns. Artificial intelligence (AI) and other tech opportunities likely will support private equity performance.