Wellington Management
April 22, 2024
Tracing our history to 1928, Wellington Management is one of the largest independent investment management firms in the world. We serve as a trusted adviser for institutions in more than 60 countries.

Battle for the supply side of the economy: US election implications

The US presidential election in November 2024 will carry monumental implications from economic, fiscal, institutional, and societal perspectives. This note will focus on the economy, for which the election outcome could materially alter the current trajectory. While too early to have a significant degree of confidence in the outcome, a Republican sweep (Presidency, House, Senate) would represent a seismic event for the bond market given the combination of increased probability of higher cost-push inflation through an acceleration in protectionist policies (higher tariffs and immigration restrictions) and a large fiscal easing relative to current Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts.

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