Michael Lebowitz

Another Warning in the GDP Data

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All recessions since 1948 started with an average growth rate greater than the current 1.20% rate.

On Friday July 29th, 2016, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released the second-quarter GDP figures and revisions for prior quarters. At a disappointing annualized growth rate of only 1.20%, second quarter GDP widely missed consensus expectations of 2.50% growth. Coincidently the current 1-year average growth rate has risen at the same 1.20% and that annualized growth rate has declined for five quarters in a row.


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