An update on longer-term Fibonacci and pi Cycle work....DJIA topping

Back in 1999 I wrote the attached article expecting the DJIA to top out at 11,541….

http://www.sandspring.com/articles/toohigh9.html 

On January 14, 2000 I followed it up with this article on the DJIA's “Three Peaks & Domed House” formation at 11,722 (which ended up being released on the day of the closing high):

http://www.sandspring.com/articles/tp.html 

OK, so my original Fibonacci target got surpassed by a small bit by the Jan 14, 2000 top.

But if I take my original 11,541 x 1.618 Fib Golden Ratio = 18,673

Actual recent high of the DJIA is 18,668 – damn close.

Using the actual 2000 DJIA intraday high of 11,750, the current DJIA should not print any higher than 11750 x 1.618 = 19,011.50.

So we are looking at 3% risk to upside from current market levels, but oh-so much eventual potential risk to the downside.

In terms of timing, the DJIA was in peaking action between middle “three-peak” momentum high of July 12, 1999 and the ultimate “domed house” high of Jan 14, 2000.

Applying a full-pi-cycle 2*pi*1000 (6282 days) from those twin peaks, one gets one of two dates: 09/22/16 or 3/27/17.

We may not be there yet but phi amplitude and pi time are getting pretty close to being in synch (time and price squaring so-to-speak) for a major high.

19011.50 on either 9/22/16 or 3/27/17 would be the perfect hit vs. prior price action.

Lifeboats will be needed on the other side of this.

I am invariably early and angst-filled not to miss a huge opportunity, so at this point I don’t really care about the last 3% of potential upside given how big the downside opportunity is, and the fact that we basically reached the idealized Fib target zone from the original 1999 initial calcs.  Sell longs.  Look for shorts.