2025 Outlook: This is not a landing

Peter van der Welle - Strategist Sustainable Multi Asset Solutions
Rachel Whittaker, CFA - Head of SI Research

What kind of landing will the global economy face in 2025? We’re well past peak misery from the global tightening cycle, but we’re still no nearer knowing when ‘normality’ will return, our one-year outlook says.

The US faces uncertainty under Trump 2.0, and Europe needs the kind of radical changes already seen in US exceptionalism. Our base case for asset class returns sees equities rising in single digits amid a backdrop of elevated real bond yields and an overvalued US dollar whose safe-haven status is being gradually eroded.

A key trend in 2025 will be transition investing, where we see rapid growth in products as decarbonization gains momentum. Nature action should also gain in importance following the success of the COP 16 biodiversity summit.