Thriving or surviving? The state of the US consumer and the economic implications

In 2023, consumer resilience carried the US economy, helping growth stay strong despite recessions in housing and a range of industries, especially on the goods side of the economy. This year, the story is more nuanced. It features slower consumer spending broadly but also a notable divergence between consumers who are thriving (thanks to termed-out mortgage debt, for example) and those who are just surviving (under the increased weight of variable-rate debt like credit cards). The increased stress faced by lower-income consumers, those who rent, and younger cohorts is increasingly visible in corporate results and financial metrics.