Gold in a Storm: How Gold Holds Up During Market Crises>
In times of market stress, investors often search for assets that can preserve value and diversify risk. Gold is once again proving its worth surging more than 25% amid recent global uncertainty, reinforcing that its current breakout is no fluke. This rally is consistent with gold’s long-standing reputation as a safe haven. Over the last 50 years, gold has repeatedly earned its place as a crisis hedge. To prove it, we examined how gold performed during some of the most severe U.S. market downturns.
Before we take a look at the crises, let’s level set and see how gold holds up versus bonds, stocks, and commodities over the past 50+ years. As you can see in the below chart, gold is a top-performing asset over short-, medium- and long-term windows:
Gold performance versus other asset classes (1972 to 2025)
Source: VanEck, FactSet. Data as of March 2025. “U.S. Stocks” represented by the S&P 500 Index. “U.S. Bonds” represented by U.S. Treasury Bond (10-Year Estimate)—calculated using a constant average duration of 8.105 and the daily yield from U.S. 10-year treasuries to infer a daily return series. “Commodities” represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Not only does gold outperform, it outperforms independently. The chart below demonstrates that gold is uncorrelated to stocks and bonds:
Gold correlation with U.S. stocks and bonds (1972 to 2025)
| U.S. Stocks | U.S. Bonds | Gold ($/oz) | |
| U.S. Stocks | 1.00 | ||
| U.S. Bonds | 0.11 | 1.00 | |
| Gold ($/oz) | 0.01 | 0.06 | 1.00 |
Source: VanEck, FactSet. Data as of March 2025. “U.S. Stocks” represented by the S&P 500 Index. “U.S. Bonds” represented by U.S. Treasury Bond (10-Year Estimate). Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Performance of Gold, Stocks, and Bonds in Major Crises
Global Stocks and Bonds vs. Gold Periods of Heightened Risk
Source: VanEck, World Gold Council. Data as of December 31, 2024. Dates utilized: Dot-com bubble = Mar 2000 to Mar 2001; 9/11 = Sep 2001; Global Financial Crisis = Aug 2007 to Mar 2009; Sovereign Debt Crisis = Jan 2010 to Jun 2010; Brexit = June 2016; COVID 19 = Jan 2020 to Mar 2020; Regional Bank Crisis = Mar 2023; October 7th Attacks = Oct 2023; “Global Stocks” represented by MSCI World Index. “Global Bonds” represented by Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Index descriptions included at the end of this presentation.
1. Dot-Com Bust (March 2000–March 2001)
After the tech bubble burst, global equities fell nearly 25%, while bonds offered solid returns as rates declined. Gold held up better that stocks (declining about 7%), providing a valuable source of diversification.
2. Global Financial Crisis (2008–2009)
The collapse of the U.S. housing market and banking system led to one of the worst bear markets in modern history. During the GFC, global stocks plummeted by 46% and while bonds performed relatively well (+7%), gold ended the period up 37%. Initially caught in the liquidity squeeze, gold quickly rebounded and gained further into 2009, reinforcing its role as a hedge against systemic risk and monetary instability.
3. Euro Debt Crisis & U.S. Ratings Downgrade (2011)
Markets were rattled by fears of sovereign default in Europe and the U.S. credit rating downgrade. Equities were volatile, with global equities ending the period with a 6% decline, while bonds gained 3%. Gold rose +15%, reaching record highs above $1,900/oz as investors sought safety amid concerns about fiscal sustainability and global currency credibility.
4. COVID-19 Crash (2020)
The pandemic triggered a historic selloff in early 2020, with global equities falling by more than 20% in just a few months. Gold gained 4% at the onset, delivering both protection and performance in times of extreme uncertainty.
5. October 7th Attacks in Israel (2023)
The surprise Hamas attacks on Israel shocked global markets, intensifying geopolitical risk and driving a flight to safety. While global stocks wobbled and bonds faced continued pressure from rising yields, gold rallied sharply, gaining over 7% in the weeks following the attack. As investors weighed the potential for broader regional conflict, gold once again proved its role as a geopolitical hedge, outperforming both equities and fixed income.
Why Gold Matters in a Diversified Portfolio
As the chart above shows, gold often outperformed when it mattered most, during deep equity drawdowns or systemic shocks. It doesn’t always beat stocks or bonds, but in extreme uncertainty, it has historically held or gained value when other asset classes fell.
Advisors and investors looking for robust portfolio construction should consider a strategic allocation to gold (5%–10%) to reduce drawdowns and improve resilience. In times of crisis, gold doesn’t just protect value, it buys time and confidence.
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