Artko Capital LP
May 18, 2022
Investing in small/micro cap companies and special situations within a concentrated portfolio

Artko Capital 1Q 2022 Partner Letter

For the first calendar quarter of 2022, an average partnership interest in Artko Capital LP was down 11.4% net of fees. At the same time, investments in the most comparable market indexes—Russell 2000, Russell Microcap, and the S&P 500—were down 7.5%, 7.6%, and 4.6% respectively. Our detailed results and related footnotes are available in the table at the end of this letter. Our results this quarter came from Currency Exchange International as well as modest contributions from US Ecology warrants while the rest of the portfolio declined with the broader markets.

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|
P a g e
Peter Rabover
Portfolio Manager
Artko Capital LP
May
1
8
, 202
2
Dear Partner,
For the first
calendar quarter of 20
2
2
, a
n average
partnership inter
est in Artko Capital LP
was down
11
.
4
%
net of fees. At the same time, investment
s
in the most comparable market indexes
Russell 2000, Russell
Microcap, and the S&P 500
were
down
7
.
5
%,
7
.
6
%, and
4
.
6
% respectively
.
Our
detailed
results
and
related footnotes
are available in the table at the en
d of this letter
.
Our results this quarter came from
Currency Exchange International
as well as modest contributions from US Ecology warrants
while the rest
of the portfolio declin
ed with the broader markets
.
2Q21
3Q21
4Q21
1Q22
1 year
3 year
5 year
Inception
7/1/2015
Inception
Annualized
Artko LP Net
0.5%
-6.1%
-3.4%
-11.4%
-19.2%
7.1%
4.9%
69.3%
8.1%
Russell 2000 Index
4.3%
-4.4%
2.1%
-7.5%
-5.8%
11.7%
9.7%
80.6%
9.2%
Russell MicroCap Index
4.1%
-5.0%
-2.7%
-7.6%
-11.0%
13.0%
9.9%
72.9%
8.5%
S&P 500 Index
8.6%
0.6%
11.0%
-4.6%
15.6%
18.9%
15.9%
150.0%
14.5%
On the recent sell
-
offs
In our last
few letters
to you
,
we wrote that our main concern continued to be willful ignorance by the
Federal Reserve
in both believing in
a unicorn
-
like concept of “transitory inflation” and
that
three 25 bp
hikes would fix the problem
,
s
pecifically:
“...we strongly belie
ve that while signaling three to four rate hikes, the Federal Reserve, which has painted
itself into a corner, will likely be forced to do seven or eight hikes, including a few surprise mid
-
meeting
ones. This is likely to create more market shocks and lead
to more psychologically painful adjustments in
the
most speculative corners of the market, where higher
-
quality small caps will also not be immune,
despite
strong fundamentals. In short, our expectations for the price performance of our portfolio is one
o
f
volatility in 2022, where despite our best efforts on being invested in high
-
quality growing companies,
there is a chance where “our baby” may be thrown out with the bathwater in the short term
...”
Sometimes we hate being right.
The market figured out that small gradual increases are unlikely
,
and it is
obvious that increases will be measured in 100s of basis points, not
in
small
multiples of 25s. We believe
the real new risk today is that a
clearly
embarrassed Fed
will try to act
TOO
tough
, which they’ve openly
admitted
they would
, and
unnecessar
ily “over
do it” and cause a recession. T
his seems to be the common
view in the market today which is why the small cap indexes
are down close to 20% year to
date
. Despite
having a portfolio with
rock
-
solid balance sheets at
10%+ of net cash as a percent of market cap and
substantial
revenue and profit
growth with few recession
-
related
risks, as of today
,
our portfolio’s
median
valuation is close
to
4.0x EBITDA
and
,
as we predicted,
our baby
is getting thrown out with the
bath
water. After listening to our management team
s 1
st
quarter 2022 earnings reports and subsequent
conversations
we
remain confident that our portfolio
companies will continue to grow through the
turbulent and uncertain months ahead due to
strong backlogs, staple products
,
and secular tailwinds far
outweighing short term economic
uncertainties.
Thus
,
we
believe
that t
oday’s market performance feels
much mor
e like the
“taper tantrum” and Grexit/Brexit
-
like drawdowns based on uncertainty versus
the
late 2008/March 2020
-
based drawdowns on decimated fundamentals.
That is, we consider these to be
growing pains of the market adjusting to a more normalized economy
where the cost of capital is more
than zero and
marginal fundamentals
-
based investors once again tak
e
share from
the speculative mania
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investors of the las
t few years.
In general, this is the least worried
we have
been in a
negative market
performance scenario and we consider not having enough capital to invest in
the
tremendous
opportunities available in the microcap space today as our biggest problem
.
Enhanced
Portfolio
Additions
1847 Goedeker
Inc $2.25 6/02/2026 Warrants
(
GOED WS
)
We
ac
quired a
n 8
% position in the
warrants of 1847 Goedeker Inc (GOED) at an average
cost
of $0.6
2
starting in late December 2021 and
are
continuously adding through
out
2022 to lower our price average.
We are
ver
y
excited about this
investment and
think the market has given us a fantastic multibagger opportunit
y.
Our investment
in GOED, a
high
growth
appliance
e
-
commerce
company, is very reminiscent of our
investment in HireQuest
(HQI)
where a large
,
successful private company merged with a substantially
smaller and
underperforming but public competitor. In the case of HQI, it merged with a
$20mm
market
cap competitor Command Center and it took a while for the market to realize that the new
company is a Free Cash Flow (FCF) generating machine led
by an industry veteran
and it was no longer
the company
represented
by
its
historical
numbers
. GOED is not dis
similar as
it was a
small
, $50mm
revenue run rate,
and on the verge of bankruptc
y
company
that
merged with a substantially larger
competitor, Appliance Connection
,
in 2021
.
T
he combined company is expected to generate close to
$650
mm in revenues and
close to
$6
5
mm/$
55
mm in EBITDA/EBIT in 2022, growing revenues
by
over
20%
, despite an incredibly challenging economic environment.
This was
again
reaffirmed on the
company’s most recent
earnings call in May.
Despite all this, at the en
d of the quarter the company,
at a ~$1.40 stock price, sport
ed a market cap/enterprise value of $150mm/$170mm
or 2.3x/3.0x
EBITDA/EBIT, an absurdly low price implying ba
nkruptcy or an imminent consumer collapse
. Given
that Bank of America just approved a $
140mm
lending agreement to the
company
, the size of its
entire market cap at the time,
and unlike furniture
,
most appliance purchases can
not be deferred
(try
going without a refrigerator for a few weeks) we find the aforementioned scenarios
highly
impr
obable.
So
,
what makes
GOED (or Appliance Connection) so special?
For one
,
we believe the
appliance
e
-
commerce
industry, with an approximately
20% share of the total
appliance
pie
,
is still substantially
behind
the furniture industry at over 40%
penetration
and these secular tailwinds are expected to
result in the industry growth of 20
-
30%
a year
in the intermediate future
as
it continues to take share
from brick and mortar retail
.
This
is consistent with the 20% revenue growth guided by management
on
the
ir earnings call in late March 2022
and reaffirmed in May 2022
.
The
industry is currently pretty
stratified with
large brick and mortar
:
Home Depot, Lowes
,
and
Best Buy
controlling approximately
70% of the
share
, while the rest is characterized by leg
acy “mom & pop” competitors
where the
Appliance Connection CEO and founder, Albert F
ouerti
,
sees the most opportunity to take market
share.
The key differentiators for the
company
are service
s
such as delivery and installation which
the
bigger box competi
tors
,
for whom appliances are a small part of their business
,
are not great at, and
selection, where most
places have 10
-
20 best
sellers
available versus the
365
low
-
to high
-
end items
carried by GOED.
We believe a post
-
merger investor
rotation
;
a capital structure, where a company at a stock price of
$1.70 and 106mm shares outstanding, has 98mm warrants at an exercise price of $2.25
;
and general
economic fears have driven the stock price to
unrealistic valuation levels of low single
-
digit
profit
multiples
.
The company’s
peers are trading at
high single
/low double
-
digit multiples
with lower
growth
opportunities
. We believe that this valuation gap is unsustainable and
with our near
-
term
price target of over $5.00 per share, the warrants are the best opportunity to play this special
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situation.
With the newly approved loan
,
confidence in forward guidance
,
and management’s
willingness to continue to buy back stock and
clean up the capi
tal structure
,
we believe it
i
s not a
matter of “if” but “when”
the market wakes up to one of the best investment opportunities in the
small cap world.
Partnership Updates
We welcomed one new partner to the partnership this quarter, bringing our total to
4
5
at the end of
March
.
We have completed our audit without any issues for the sixth year in a row
,
the results of which
you should have received last month.
Despite the current economic challenges,
we
are excited about the
continued growth in partners a
nd are thankful for your business
.
Next Fund Opening
Our next partnership openings will be June 1
, 202
2
. Please reach out for updated offering documents and
presentations at
info@artkocapital.com
or 415.531.2699.
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Appendix
A
: Performance Statistics Tabl
e
Artko LP Gross
Artko LP Net
Russell 2000
Index
Russell
MicroCap Index
S&P 500 Index
YTD
-11.1%
-11.4%
-7.5%
-7.6%
-4.6%
1 Year
-18.1%
-19.2%
-5.8%
-11.0%
15.7%
3 Year
10.5%
7.0%
11.8%
13.0%
18.9%
5 Year
7.9%
4.8%
9.7%
9.9%
16.0%
Inception 7/1/2015
114.1%
69.3%
80.6%
72.9%
150.0%
Inception Annualized
11.9%
8.1%
9.2%
8.5%
14.5%
Monthly Average
1.2%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
1.2%
Monthly St Deviation
6.8%
6.5%
5.7%
6.3%
4.2%
Correlation w Net
-
1.00
0.71
0.69
0.62
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Legal Disclosure
The Partnership’s
performance is based on operations during a period of general market growth and
extraordinary market volatility during part of the period, and is not necessarily indicative of results the
Partnership may achieve in the future. In addition, the results are
based on the periods as a whole, but
results for individual months or quarters within each period have been more favorable or less favorable
than the average, as the case may be. The foregoing data have been prepared by the General Partner and
have not bee
n compiled, reviewed or audited by an independent accountant and non
-
year end results
are subject to adjustment.
The results portrayed are for an investor since inception in the Partnership and the results reflect the
reinvestment of dividends and other e
arnings and the deduction of costs, the management fees charged
to the Partnership and a pro forma reduction of the General Partner’s special profit allocation, if
applicable. The General Partner believes that the comparison of Partnership performance to a
ny single
market index is inappropriate. The Partnership’s portfolio may contain options and other derivative
securities, fixed income investments, may include short sales of securities and margin trading and is not
as diversified as the indices, shown. Th
e Standard & Poor's 500 Index contains 500 industrial,
transportation, utility and financial companies and is generally representative of the large capitalization
US stock market. The Russell 2000 Index is comprised of the smallest 2000 companies in the Ru
ssell 3000
Index and is generally representative of the small capitalization U.S. stock market. The Russell Microcap
Index is comprised of the smallest 1,000 securities in the Russell 2000 Index plus the next 1,000 securities
(traded on national exchanges)
. The Russell Microcap is generally representative of the microcap segment
of the U.S. stock market. All of the indices are unmanaged, market weighted and reflect the reinvestment
of dividends. Due to the differences among the Partnership’s portfolio and t
he performance of the equity
market indices shown above, however, the General Partner cautions potential investors that no such
index is directly comparable to the investment strategy of the Partnership.
While the General Partner believes that to date
the Partnership has been managed with an investment
philosophy and methodology similar to that described in the Partnership’s Offering Circular and to that
which will be used to manage the Partnership in the future, future investments will be made under
di
fferent economic conditions and in different securities. Further, the performance discussed herein does
not reflect the General Partner’s performance in all different economic cycles. It should not be assumed
that investors will experience returns in the f
uture, if any, comparable to those discussed above. The
information given above is historic and should not be taken as any indication of future performance. It
should not be assumed that recommendations made in the future will be profitable, or will equal,
the
performance of the securities discussed in this material. Upon request, the General Partner will provide
to you a list of all the recommendations made by it within the past year.
This document is not intended as and does not constitute an offer to se
ll any securities to any person or
a solicitation of any person of any offer to purchase any securities. Such an offer or solicitation can only
be made by the confidential Offering Circular of the Partnership. This information omits most of the
information
material to a decision whether to invest in the Partnership. No person should rely on any
information in this document, but should rely exclusively on the Offering Circular in considering whether
to invest in the Partnership.
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